Best MLB earned runs matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate5.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB6.2%
vs RHB6.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)9.4%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)14.1%3.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.2%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)10.0%3.0
5. Hao-Yu Lee (R)8.8%3.0
6. Jahmai Jones (R)12.3%2.7
7. Zach McKinstry (L)9.0%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)11.7%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.7%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.8%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)9.6%2.2
4. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.4%2.0
5. Masyn Winn (R)12.0%2.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)10.9%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nathan Church (L)11.0%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)9.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.3%
vs RHB8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.6 BF
Expected batters faced19.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)10.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)12.9%2.6
3. Carter Jensen (L)13.8%2.0
4. Starling Marte (R)12.9%2.0
5. Salvador Perez (R)9.0%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)11.1%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)10.3%2.0
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)17.8%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.3%
vs RHB10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.3%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)13.3%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)12.8%3.0
4. Miguel Andujar (R)8.9%2.1
5. Ty France (R)10.8%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)9.2%2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)10.1%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)10.1%2.0
9. Jake Cronenworth (L)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)13.7%3.0
2. Joey Meneses (R)10.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)14.1%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)11.8%3.0
5. Colby Thomas (R)11.6%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)12.8%3.0
7. Max Muncy (R)11.7%2.5
8. Jeff McNeil (L)10.9%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)12.9%3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R)12.3%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)10.7%2.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)14.2%2.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.5%2.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)12.4%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)12.9%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)12.1%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)13.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.5%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)10.6%3.0
2. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)14.9%3.0
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)9.9%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)9.9%3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.3
7. Spencer Jones (L)11.7%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)8.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)13.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.4% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.1%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)10.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.8%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)11.3%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)13.0%2.0
7. Anthony Seigler (L)12.7%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)8.8%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate8.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.6 BF
Expected batters faced25.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)12.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)10.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)12.9%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)12.1%3.0
5. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (R)9.6%3.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)12.3%3.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.8%2.6
9. Jake Mangum (R)11.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.7% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)15.4%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)10.1%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)9.6%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)9.8%3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)11.7%2.7
6. David Fry (R)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.3%2.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)9.0%2.0
9. Austin Hedges (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.9%
vs RHB9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)12.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.3%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)10.1%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)10.9%3.0
5. Taylor Trammell (L)12.1%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)9.8%3.0
7. Joey Loperfido (L)12.4%2.3
8. Nick Allen (R)12.1%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.0%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.5%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)13.0%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)13.1%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)9.9%3.0
6. Cal Raleigh (L)10.9%2.2
7. Cole Young (L)11.4%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)9.9%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.9%
vs RHB9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.9%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)12.8%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)13.9%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)10.2%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)8.4%3.0
6. Pavin Smith (L)9.8%2.1
7. Nolan Arenado (R)10.1%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.8%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)12.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.7%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)13.4%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)14.6%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)13.2%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)8.7%2.3
5. Gary Sánchez (R)11.9%2.0
6. Blake Perkins (L)12.2%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.3%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)10.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.6%
vs RHB12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)13.8%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)12.2%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)13.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)12.2%2.5
5. Cole Carrigg (L)11.7%2.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)11.6%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)14.5%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)10.9%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB8.8%
vs RHB11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)11.4%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)10.9%3.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.5%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.8%3.0
5. Kyle Higashioka (R)10.6%3.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.8%2.6
7. Cameron Cauley (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)10.6%2.0
9. Evan Carter (L)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.1%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)15.0%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)10.9%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.2%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)12.2%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)12.1%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)12.5%2.3
7. Oswald Peraza (R)8.5%2.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)10.2%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)9.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.4%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)10.7%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)8.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)13.5%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)13.0%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)13.1%2.5
7. Michael Conforto (L)12.2%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.9%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)14.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate11.9% Runs / BF
vs LHB12.4%
vs RHB11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)12.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)9.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)13.4%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.2%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)9.1%3.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)8.8%2.1
7. Ben Williamson (R)12.0%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R)10.8%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.9%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)13.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)12.3%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)13.5%3.0
4. JJ Bleday (L)12.7%2.2
5. Dane Myers (R)11.5%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)11.3%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)10.0%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)10.0%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.8%
vs RHB10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.5%3.0
2. Andrés Chaparro (R)13.4%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)13.4%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)16.0%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)11.9%3.0
7. Luis García Jr. (L)10.5%2.3
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)13.4%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)10.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.0% Runs / BF
vs LHB9.2%
vs RHB16.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)12.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)13.7%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)12.6%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)13.5%3.0
5. Jared Young (L)12.9%3.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)10.7%2.1
7. Mark Vientos (R)10.0%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)9.8%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)10.1%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate13.3% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.0%
vs RHB15.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.9 BF
Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.5%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)12.9%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)12.0%2.9
4. Kyle Teel (L)12.8%2.0
5. Randal Grichuk (R)14.0%2.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)13.9%2.0
8. Chase Meidroth (R)11.9%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB16.3%
vs RHB13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.4 BF
Expected batters faced19.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)14.3%3.0
2. Xavier Edwards (L)10.8%2.4
3. Esteury Ruiz (R)15.6%2.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.1%2.0
5. Kyle Stowers (L)10.8%2.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)9.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)10.8%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)9.7%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.5% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.1%
vs RHB11.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)12.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.2%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.0%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)13.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)10.5%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)10.4%3.0
7. Luis Urías (R)11.9%2.2
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)18.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.4%
vs RHB13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.0%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.4%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)11.0%3.0
4. Matt Olson (L)12.7%2.5
5. Drake Baldwin (L)13.0%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)10.6%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)12.5%2.0
8. Eli White (R)10.6%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)9.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB13.4%
vs RHB7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)13.9%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)15.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)18.3%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)16.9%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)10.7%2.4
6. Bryson Stott (L)13.2%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)13.5%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)7.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate15.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.5%
vs RHB13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)13.3%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.3%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)12.1%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)13.7%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (R)11.2%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)10.3%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)10.6%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)10.2%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate12.1% Runs / BF
vs LHB15.2%
vs RHB8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)15.2%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)14.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)12.6%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)13.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)9.9%2.7
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.9%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)15.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)10.3%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)14.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Cam Schlittler (NYY) is the top earned runs spot on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER, with Martín Pérez (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler (NYY) tops the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER vs DET. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Martín Pérez (ATL) (84) — about 1.8 ER vs STL.
Griffin Jax (TB) (83) — about 1.8 ER vs KC.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) (68) — about 2.2 ER vs SD.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) (63) — about 2.3 ER vs ATH.
Erick Fedde (CWS) (61) — about 2.3 ER vs BAL.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?
Cam Schlittler (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER against DET.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Cam Schlittler (~1.5 ER), Martín Pérez (~1.8 ER), Griffin Jax (~1.8 ER), Matthew Boyd (~2.2 ER), Justin Wrobleski (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
