Last scored matchup
Alec isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 7 days ago, away at New York Yankees on Wednesday, September 30, 2026. This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
3 starts, 1-0, 1.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 33.0 innings. He's struck out 23 over that span, against 11 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Alec is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
Against New York Yankees
Alec has faced New York Yankees 3 times in our log — 1 strikeout over 2.0 innings. Head-to-head history is the input people weight most and the model weights least: a handful of starts against one club tells you less than the same club's current strikeout rate against his handedness, which is what actually feeds the projection.
His last 5 starts
Alec has 2 strikeouts in 4.7 innings across his last 5 starts, a 3.9 K/9, with a 9.64 ERA over that stretch and 3 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Alec has 23 strikeouts and 12 walks in 33.7 innings this season — 6.1 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9, a 1.9-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Alec has made 23 starts this season, averaging 1.5 innings with a 2.41 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 0 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Alec is averaging 1.0 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 2.0 and about 18 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Alec included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.