Today's matchup
Blake is hosting Pittsburgh Pirates on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 6 boards — fantasy points (100/100, #1), strikeouts (100/100, #1), earned runs (91.5/100, #2), outs recorded (78.3/100, #7). We've got him at 18.2 on the fantasy points board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Season line
3 starts, 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 15.0 innings. He's struck out 20 over that span, against 6 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Blake is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
His last 3 starts
Blake has 20 strikeouts in 15.0 innings across his last 3 starts, a 12.0 K/9, with a 3.60 ERA over that stretch and 6 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Where he lands across our boards
Blake was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: fantasy points graded 100/100 while hits allowed came in at 43.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Blake included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.