Today's matchup
Cesar draws New York Mets on the road today. He shows up on 6 boards — outs recorded (67.1/100, #26), walks allowed (47.1/100, #19), strikeouts (46.3/100, #18), fantasy points (41.1/100, #21). We've got him at 13.5 on the outs recorded board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Season line
0 starts, 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4.0 innings. He's struck out 4 over that span, against 1 walk. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Cesar is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
Where he lands across our boards
Cesar was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: outs recorded graded 67.1/100 while hits allowed came in at 32.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Cesar's score comes from the matchup, not his reputation. The model weighs how the opposing lineup handles his handedness, how many batters he's likely to face given recent workload, the park, and the weather — then normalizes 0–100 against every other arm on the slate. How those factors are weighted is our own, and it re-tunes weekly against real outcomes. We publish the score and grade it in public; that's the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.