Not on the current slate
Jack hasn't been scored in 33 days — his last matchup was against Atlanta Braves on Saturday, October 3, 2026. A gap that long usually means an injury, a minor-league option, or a roster move rather than a rest day. Everything below is his most recent real production, not a projection.
Season line
3 starts, 5-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 64.2 innings. He's struck out 73 over that span, against 23 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Jack is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
His last 5 starts
Jack has 5 strikeouts in 6.3 innings across his last 5 starts, a 7.1 K/9, with a 5.68 ERA over that stretch and 3 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Jack has 69 strikeouts and 23 walks in 62.7 innings this season — 9.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9, a 3.0-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Jack has made 66 starts this season, averaging 0.9 innings with a 3.30 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 0 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Jack is averaging 1.2 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 2.0 and about 18 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Jack hasn't started in 39 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
How the model reads him
Jack's score rates the matchup in front of him — the opposing lineup against his handedness, expected batters faced, the park and the weather — normalized 0–100 against the slate and graded against the box score. The weighting is ours and re-tunes weekly; the record is public. For Jack specifically, he's coming off a 39-day gap, so treat the projection as a ceiling.
The full method, and the season-wide graded record, is on how MatchWiz works.