Today's matchup
Today it's Boston Red Sox for Jake, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — doubles (59.9/100, #18), hits (55.4/100, #79), walks (54.4/100, #30), runs (50.1/100, #93). We've got him at 0.2 on the doubles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Small sample, handle with care
Jake has just 58 at-bats in our graded season log — not enough to say much. He's hitting .207 across them, but a number built on this little data moves wildly with one good week. His confidence rating on any board reflects that: the model will still score his matchup, it's just honest that it's working with thin information. Treat the projection as a starting point, not a read.
He's a left-handed bat
Jake hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
His best game in the log
Jake's biggest night was Tuesday, May 5, 2026 against TOR — 2-for-4. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
No graded record on him yet
We haven't ranked Jake a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 1 time so far. He's appeared in 19 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.
Where he lands across our boards
Jake was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 59.9/100 while triples came in at 9.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Jake's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Jake specifically, his sample is small (58 at-bats logged), and we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.