Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, September 20, 2026
Top walks spot: Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Davis Martin. The lefty is working counts at .152 BB/PA against righties this year — and .192 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Davis Martin has been fairly stingy with walks against righties lately — .071 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Davis Martin, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mike Trout (LAA) (96) vs RHP Dean Kremer: an elite bat at .155 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.077).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Jonah Tong: an excellent bat at .133 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.037).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Lake Bachar: a strong bat at .120 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.231).
- Will Smith (LAD) (87) vs LHP Matt Wilkinson: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (85) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: an excellent bat at .131 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.121).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (84) vs RHP Corbin Burnes: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.111).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (83) vs RHP Jonah Tong: an excellent bat at .135 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.037).
Platoon edges to target
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Will Smith (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .167 against lefties this year.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .191 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays