Today's matchup
Jonah draws Miami Marlins on the road today. He shows up on 6 boards — hits allowed (77.6/100, #2), earned runs (71.3/100, #2), walks allowed (45.8/100, #6), fantasy points (0/100, #18). We've got him at 3.3 on the hits allowed board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Season line
0 starts, 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10.0 innings. He's struck out 7 over that span, against 7 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Jonah throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
His last 3 starts
Jonah has 7 strikeouts in 10.0 innings across his last 3 starts, a 6.3 K/9, with a 3.60 ERA over that stretch and 7 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
A long gap since his last start
Jonah hasn't started in 97 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
Where he lands across our boards
Jonah was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits allowed graded 77.6/100 while strikeouts came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Jonah's score comes from the matchup, not his reputation. The model weighs how the opposing lineup handles his handedness, how many batters he's likely to face given recent workload, the park, and the weather — then normalizes 0–100 against every other arm on the slate. How those factors are weighted is our own, and it re-tunes weekly against real outcomes. We publish the score and grade it in public; that's the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Jonah specifically, he's coming off a 97-day gap.