MatchWiz

Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda — our top-20 calls on him have hit 76% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
73
Walks · @ NYY · 2026-10-07
Our calls on him · hits
76%
1+ hit in 35/46 top-20 calls
Games graded
153
this season, box-score final
Jonathan Aranda
1BBats LThrows RTampa Bay Rays
Walks73/100proj 0.4#5Singles70.1/100proj 0.7#4Hits63.4/100proj 1#15Total Bases47.6/100proj 1.5#15H+R+RBI46/100proj 1.6#19Triples43.6/100proj 0#11RBIs43.2/100proj 0.4#17Fantasy Points41.3/100proj 6.2#20Runs31.4/100proj 0.5#20Doubles29.7/100proj 0.2#25Home Runs21.9/100proj 0.1#24Stolen Bases0.8/100proj 0#34

Last scored matchup

Jonathan isn't on today's slate. He was last scored yesterday, away at New York Yankees on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, where he landed on walks (73/100), singles (70.1/100), hits (63.4/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Jonathan is 8-for-33 (.242) over his last 10 games, in line with his .271 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Jonathan has 23 home runs and 48 extra-base hits in 576 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Jonathan hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Jonathan has recorded at least one hit in 106 of 153 games he's batted in — 69% — with 39 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Jonathan is hitting .283 at home (82-for-290) and .259 on the road (74-for-286) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against New York Yankees

Jonathan is 5-for-19 (.263) against New York Yankees in our log, over 5 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 19 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

How our calls on Jonathan have graded

We've ranked Jonathan a top-20 hitter matchup 46 times this season. He got a hit in 35 of them — 76%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Jonathan was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 73/100 while stolen bases came in at 0.8/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Jonathan gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, October 7@ NYY31001
Monday, October 5vs NYY52010
Saturday, October 3vs NYY41111
Sunday, September 27@ PHI21000
Saturday, September 26@ PHI40000
Friday, September 25@ PHI31000
Wednesday, September 23@ NYY40000
Tuesday, September 22@ —10000
Tuesday, September 22@ NYY31000
Saturday, September 19vs BOS41111
Friday, September 18vs BOS51001
Thursday, September 17vs ATH41011

Jonathan Aranda — FAQ

Is Jonathan Aranda playing today?

Jonathan Aranda isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Jonathan Aranda graded?

In the 46 games where our model ranked Jonathan a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 35 times — 76%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Jonathan Aranda been hitting lately?

Jonathan is 8-for-33 (.242) over his last 10 games, against .271 on the season across 576 at-bats in our log, with 23 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Jonathan Aranda appear on?

Jonathan was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — walks, singles, hits, total bases, h+r+rbi. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Jonathan Aranda's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).