Today's matchup
Matt is on the road against Boston Red Sox on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 6 boards — walks allowed (79.7/100, #5), earned runs (62.5/100, #5), hits allowed (38.4/100, #4), outs recorded (33.2/100, #13). We've got him at 1.5 on the walks allowed board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
Season line
1 start, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 2.0 innings. He's struck out 0 over that span, against 0 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Matt is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
Where he lands across our boards
Matt was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks allowed graded 79.7/100 while fantasy points came in at 10.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Matt included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.