Today's matchup
Paxton isn't on the current slate — no scored matchup right now. His recent game log and season record are below, and this page updates the moment he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Last time out, Paxton struck out 1 over 0.3 innings, 2 earned. His recent starts are in the game log below.
Paxton's recent starts
Over his last 5 starts, Paxton has 4 strikeouts in 5.3 innings. Strikeouts are where our model has a real, graded edge — his start-by-start log is below.
How the model reads him
Paxton's matchup score blends his own rates with the specific spot — the arm he faces and that pitcher's bullpen, the handedness edge, the park, the weather, and his recent form — normalized 0–100 against the rest of the slate. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly. We publish the score and grade it in the open; the record above is the receipt.