Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Ozzie Albies (100), J.P. Crawford (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Geraldo Perdomo (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, July 9, 2026?

Yes — Heliot Ramos got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year. J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 50%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 51%

Full slate

88/23438%

season 38%

Top call Heliot Ramos came through. J.P. Crawford didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–5

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–7

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup90 Final · 12–4

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–3

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup82 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–1

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup80 Final · 1–4

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup88 Final · 4–8

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–0

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–4

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup89 Final · 6–7

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–1

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup99 Final · 2–8

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 293 shownScore

88 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
2
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T2
Matt Olson1B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #12
T2
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T2
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #35
T2
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T2
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #48
T2
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #51
T2
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #54
T2
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T2
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
T2
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #124
T2
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #126
T2
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #133
T2
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T2
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #195
T2
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #210
T2
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #215
T2
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #222
T2
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #231
T2
Austin WellsC
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #233
22
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T22
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T22
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T22
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T22
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T22
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T22
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #19
T22
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #24
T22
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #25
T22
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #26
T22
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@PIT· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #28
T22
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #38
T22
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T22
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
T22
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T22
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T22
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #58
T22
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T22
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T22
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T22
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T22
Jake MangumCF
PITvsATL· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T22
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T22
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCHC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #69
T22
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T22
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T22
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T22
Liam HicksC
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
T22
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@BAL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T22
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsCHC· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #90
T22
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T22
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@TEX· 4-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T22
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T22
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #100
T22
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@DET· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #102
T22
Jake RogersC
DETvsATH· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T22
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T22
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T22
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T22
Manny Machado3B
SDvsAZ· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T22
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #123
T22
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsATH· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T22
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #128
T22
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #131
T22
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsATL· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T22
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #142
T22
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T22
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T22
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #149
T22
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@PIT· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T22
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T22
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T22
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
T22
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #173
T22
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #175
T22
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #185
T22
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@STL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #186
T22
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #187
T22
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #199
T22
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T22
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #204
T22
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T22
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #221
T22
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsATL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #223
T22
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #225
T22
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #227
T22
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #230

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Heliot Ramos (SF) is the top runs matchup on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, with Ozzie Albies (ATL) and J.P. Crawford (SEA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The righty is scoring at .116 R/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .040 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Ozzie Albies (ATL) (100) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.242), hot bat.
J.P. Crawford (SEA) (100) vs RHP Janson Junk: a league-average bat at .115 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (99) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.050).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (98) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
Rafael Devers (SF) (98) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191).
Trea Turner (PHI) (96) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .145 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).

Platoon edges to target

Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Heliot Ramos finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: Heliot Ramos (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Heliot Ramos (100), Ozzie Albies (100), J.P. Crawford (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Geraldo Perdomo (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, July 9, 2026?: Yes — Heliot Ramos got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year. J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.