Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top runs spot: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is scoring at .188 R/PA against righties this year — and .212 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting lit up by righties lately — .220 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 18 career PA against Mitch Keller, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (94) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.220), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (94) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.220).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
- Matt Vierling (DET) (87) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a league-average bat at .107 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (87) vs RHP Janson Junk: a league-average bat at .115 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (86) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a solid bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.220).
Platoon edges to target
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.