Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is working counts at .183 BB/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 16% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .171 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (93) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an elite bat at .167 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.083).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (79) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an elite bat at .164 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.053).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (57) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (55) vs RHP Matt Svanson: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (53) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Iván Herrera (STL) (51) vs LHP Robert Gasser: an elite bat at .151 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (51) vs LHP Payton Tolle: an excellent bat at .134 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.138).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 100.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 47.
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 43.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Corbin Carroll (AZ) at 38.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays