Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is working counts at .181 BB/PA against righties this year — and .218 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 16% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Iván Herrera (STL) (100) vs LHP Shane Drohan: an elite bat at .153 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .101 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.121), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (100) vs RHP Reynaldo López: an elite bat at .160 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.080).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.214), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (98) vs RHP Mike Burrows: an elite bat at .162 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (88) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.121), hitter's park.
- Jordan Walker (STL) (83) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .096 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Iván Herrera (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .198 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 100.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Corbin Carroll (AZ) at 83.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Hunter Goodman (COL) at 67.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays