Best MLB Walks Matchups — Saturday, August 22, 2026
Top walks spot: Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The lefty is working counts at .115 BB/PA against righties this year — and .132 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been prone to walking righties lately — .107 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Dean Kremer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (100) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: an excellent bat at .128 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.208).
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) (100) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (88) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.208).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (86) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .110 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (85) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .114 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.103).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (82) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .117 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.103).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .102 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Jake Cronenworth finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays