Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Top walks spot: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The righty is working counts at .143 BB/PA against lefties this year — and .133 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Drohan. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Lake Bachar: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.210).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (95) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .145 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.038).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (91) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an elite bat at .168 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (88) vs RHP José Soriano: a strong bat at .118 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (87) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at .129 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.083).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (85) vs RHP Lake Bachar: a strong bat at .118 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.210).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (84) vs RHP Lake Bachar: a strong bat at .101 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.210).
Platoon edges to target
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays