New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Pelicans118
Heat128FinalKaseya CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pelicans | 36 | 28 | 32 | 22 | 118 |
 Heat | 33 | 40 | 20 | 35 | 128 |
Box score
FinalNew Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce McGowensG | 20 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeremiah FearsG | 19 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Yves MissiCenter | 19 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Saddiq BeyF | 17 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Zion WilliamsonF | 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Derik QueenC | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Caleb HoustanF | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trendon WatfordF | 15 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Murphy IIIF | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bennedict MathurinG | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jordan PooleG | 13 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr.Guard | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Karlo MatkovicF | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kobe BufkinG | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert JonesF | 10 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Malik DiaForward | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian KolokoC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian ReeseF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | — | 118 | 54 | 22 | 40-91 | 19-43 | 19-25 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 25 |
Did not play AJ Johnson coach's decision · DeAndre Jordan coach's decision · Dejounte Murray coach's decision
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola JovicF | 21 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Bobby PortisF | 20 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Davion MitchellG | 20 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 19 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 18 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tre DonaldsonGuard | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Myron GardnerF | 15 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick RichardsC | 15 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 14 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| J'Vonne HadleyForward | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian SchieffelinF | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | — | 128 | 47 | 36 | 47-100 | 16-41 | 18-28 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
Did not play Bez Mbeng coach's decision · Dru Smith right calf strain · Keshad Johnson right hamstring strain · Lester Quinones coach's decision · Pelle Larsson illness · Vladislav Goldin coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Pelicans | Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-91 | FG | 47-100 |
| 44.0% | FG% | 47.0% |
| 19-43 | 3PT | 16-41 |
| 44.2% | 3PT% | 39.0% |
| 19-25 | FT | 18-28 |
| 54 | Rebounds | 47 |
| 17 | Off reb | 15 |
| 22 | Assists | 36 |
| 10 | Steals | 12 |
| 5 | Blocks | 8 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 25 | Fouls | 17 |
107.7 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Pelicans on 1 day, Heat on 4 days.
What the model says
Thursday, October 8ProjectedPelicans 115.8 · Heat 123.2
Our lineHeat −7.4
Total239.0
Win probHeat 77% · Pelicans 23%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.