Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Heat115
Magic136FinalKia CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Heat | 36 | 29 | 30 | 20 | 115 |
 Magic | 34 | 36 | 38 | 28 | 136 |
Box score
FinalMiami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan ConwellG | 30 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 9-17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Myron GardnerF | 24 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Keshad JohnsonForward | 19 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nick RichardsC | 18 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tre DonaldsonGuard | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bobby PortisF | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikola JovicF | 15 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Davion MitchellG | 15 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe MadsenG | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kylor KelleyC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vladislav GoldinCenter | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bez MbengG | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | — | 115 | 44 | 32 | 44-103 | 15-52 | 12-19 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 |
Did not play Bam Adebayo coach's decision · Dru Smith coach's decision · Ezra Ausar coach's decision · Giannis Antetokounmpo coach's decision · Ian Schieffelin coach's decision · Pelle Larsson coach's decision
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo BancheroForward | 26 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 13-16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Desmond BaneG | 24 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 8-16 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Nikola VucevicC | 23 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen SuggsGuard | 21 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Franz WagnerF | 19 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Tristan da SilvaF | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex MoralesG | 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jamal CainF | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Wendell Carter Jr.C | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jevon CarterG | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malaki BranhamF | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Knox IIF | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JD DavisonG | 7 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jase RichardsonG | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Colin CastletonC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Goga BitadzeC | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Noah PendaForward | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 136 | 51 | 31 | 44-87 | 17-43 | 31-42 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23 |
Did not play Anthony Black coach's decision · Izaiyah Nelson coach's decision · Jonathan Isaac coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Heat | Magic | |
|---|---|---|
| 44-103 | FG | 44-87 |
| 42.7% | FG% | 50.6% |
| 15-52 | 3PT | 17-43 |
| 28.8% | 3PT% | 39.5% |
| 12-19 | FT | 31-42 |
| 44 | Rebounds | 51 |
| 13 | Off reb | 12 |
| 32 | Assists | 31 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 25 | Fouls | 23 |
110.9 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Heat on 1 day, Magic on 2 days.
What the model says
Friday, October 16ProjectedHeat 120.5 · Magic 120.4
Our lineHeat −0.1
Total240.9
Win probMagic 50% · Heat 50%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.