Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Heat129
Raptors105FinalVideotron CentreScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Heat | 41 | 35 | 19 | 34 | 129 |
 Raptors | 23 | 32 | 25 | 25 | 105 |
Box score
FinalMiami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bez MbengG | 18 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nikola JovicF | 17 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tre DonaldsonGuard | 16 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 14 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Myron GardnerF | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 13 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Davion MitchellG | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 11 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 11 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bobby PortisF | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ian SchieffelinF | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J'Vonne HadleyForward | 10 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick RichardsC | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Lester QuinonesGuard | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Vladislav GoldinCenter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | — | 129 | 55 | 31 | 42-86 | 14-40 | 31-36 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 24 |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi SmithGuard | 31 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Jamal SheadG | 28 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chucky HepburnGuard | 25 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nimari BurnettG | 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-10 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| Jaden BradleyG | 20 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Collin Murray-BoylesF | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jakob PoeltlC | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Ja'Kobe WalterG | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| RJ BarrettF | 17 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyreke KeyG | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Scottie BarnesF | 12 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Immanuel QuickleyG | 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | — | 105 | 43 | 25 | 37-94 | 12-41 | 19-30 | 13 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 30 |
Team stats
Final| Heat | Raptors | |
|---|---|---|
| 42-86 | FG | 37-94 |
| 48.8% | FG% | 39.4% |
| 14-40 | 3PT | 12-41 |
| 35.0% | 3PT% | 29.3% |
| 31-36 | FT | 19-30 |
| 55 | Rebounds | 43 |
| 10 | Off reb | 13 |
| 31 | Assists | 25 |
| 9 | Steals | 17 |
| 7 | Blocks | 2 |
| 25 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 24 | Fouls | 30 |
115.0 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way.
What the model says
Saturday, October 3ProjectedHeat 120.2 · Raptors 116.8
Our lineHeat −3.5
Total237.0
Win probRaptors 36% · Heat 64%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.