Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Thunder89
Rockets116FinalToyota Center (Houston)Scoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder | 15 | 32 | 22 | 20 | 89 |
 Rockets | 33 | 21 | 25 | 37 | 116 |
Box score
FinalOklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG | 26 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen WilliamsGuard | 25 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajay MitchellG | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Jared McCainG | 21 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-13 | 0-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aday MaraC | 21 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Bennett StirtzG | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah HartensteinC | 19 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex CarusoG | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh DixG | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenrich WilliamsG | 15 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brooks BarnhizerF | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Andrew HolifieldF | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christoph TillyC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony PritchardG | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | — | 89 | 49 | 19 | 36-88 | 5-36 | 12-14 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 |
Did not play Zhaire Smith coach's decision
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleetG | 29 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 3-13 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Alperen SengunC | 24 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Amen ThompsonG | 22 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tari EasonF | 17 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Bogdan BogdanovicG | 16 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin DurantF | 16 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed SheppardG | 16 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah CrawfordF | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marcus SmartG | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Clint CapelaC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bruce ThorntonG | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oscar TshiebweC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jae'Sean TateF | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quadir CopelandGuard | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Julian PhillipsForward | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean PedullaGuard | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cameron MatthewsF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 116 | 49 | 34 | 47-104 | 17-53 | 5-11 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
Team stats
Final| Thunder | Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-88 | FG | 47-104 |
| 40.9% | FG% | 45.2% |
| 5-36 | 3PT | 17-53 |
| 13.9% | 3PT% | 32.1% |
| 12-14 | FT | 5-11 |
| 49 | Rebounds | 49 |
| 9 | Off reb | 14 |
| 19 | Assists | 34 |
| 3 | Steals | 13 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
102.5 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Thunder on 1 day, Rockets on 3 days.
What the model says
Thursday, October 15ProjectedThunder 118.1 · Rockets 117.0
Our lineThunder −1.1
Total235.2
Win probRockets 46% · Thunder 54%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.