Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Timberwolves131
Heat106FinalKaseya CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timberwolves | 34 | 35 | 30 | 32 | 131 |
 Heat | 32 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 106 |
Box score
FinalMinnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony EdwardsGuard | 33 | 45 | 10 | 3 | 16-29 | 9-17 | 4-5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Rudy GobertC | 33 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Jonathan KumingaF | 30 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| LaMelo BallG | 29 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 7-17 | 5-13 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jaden McDanielsF | 29 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Ayo DosunmuG | 29 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.G | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Joan BeringerF | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey LylesF | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bones HylandG | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen ClarkG | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody WilliamsF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah EvansF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | — | 131 | 52 | 20 | 46-98 | 21-50 | 18-29 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 26 |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion MitchellG | 33 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 30 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 13-19 | 0-2 | 9-14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 27 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Bobby PortisF | 25 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Nikola JovicF | 24 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 24 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Myron GardnerF | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick RichardsC | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 106 | 34 | 27 | 39-81 | 8-33 | 20-26 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 28 |
Did not play Dru Smith coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Timberwolves | Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| 46-98 | FG | 39-81 |
| 46.9% | FG% | 48.1% |
| 21-50 | 3PT | 8-33 |
| 42.0% | 3PT% | 24.2% |
| 18-29 | FT | 20-26 |
| 52 | Rebounds | 34 |
| 17 | Off reb | 4 |
| 20 | Assists | 27 |
| 11 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 26 | Fouls | 28 |
108.6 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on 4 days' rest.
What the model says
Wednesday, October 21ProjectedTimberwolves 120.1 · Heat 122.5
Our lineHeat −2.4
Total242.5
Win probHeat 60% · Timberwolves 40%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.