Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Nuggets84
Thunder96FinalPaycom CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nuggets | 27 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 84 |
 Thunder | 24 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 96 |
Box score
FinalDenver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal MurrayG | 37 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2-11 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| Nikola JokicC | 35 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 5-19 | 1-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Christian BraunG | 33 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Aaron GordonF | 29 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| DeMar DeRozanG | 28 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| Alpha DialloF | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Trevon BrazileF | 18 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cameron JohnsonF | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marvin Bagley IIIF | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tyus JonesG | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan NembhardG | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Holmes IIF | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce HopkinsF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 84 | 53 | 17 | 31-82 | 8-30 | 14-22 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 23 |
Did not play Zeke Nnaji coach's decision
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG | 35 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 6-19 | 3-11 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen WilliamsGuard | 33 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Chet HolmgrenCenter | 28 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Cason WallaceGuard | 24 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Ajay MitchellG | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Isaiah HartensteinC | 23 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex CarusoG | 20 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jared McCainG | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaylin WilliamsF | 15 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aday MaraC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kenrich WilliamsG | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennett StirtzG | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks BarnhizerF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 96 | 46 | 22 | 36-95 | 11-43 | 13-14 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 22 |
Team stats
Final| Nuggets | Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-82 | FG | 36-95 |
| 37.8% | FG% | 37.9% |
| 8-30 | 3PT | 11-43 |
| 26.7% | 3PT% | 25.6% |
| 14-22 | FT | 13-14 |
| 53 | Rebounds | 46 |
| 19 | Off reb | 16 |
| 17 | Assists | 22 |
| 7 | Steals | 12 |
| 2 | Blocks | 9 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 23 | Fouls | 22 |
95.9 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Nuggets on 5 days, Thunder on 1 day.
What the model says
Thursday, October 22ProjectedNuggets 111.6 · Thunder 119.0
Our lineThunder −7.3
Total230.6
Win probThunder 77% · Nuggets 23%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.