Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Pistons128
Heat111FinalKaseya CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pistons | 41 | 24 | 38 | 25 | 128 |
 Heat | 26 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 111 |
Box score
FinalDetroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade CunninghamG | 30 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| John CollinsF | 29 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 9-15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Duncan RobinsonF | 28 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 5-12 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Paul ReedF | 26 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 8-11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniss JenkinsG | 22 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Ronald Holland IIF | 22 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin HuerterG | 20 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Ausar ThompsonG | 19 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Isaiah JoeGuard | 18 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Javonte GreenG | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen DurenCenter | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tolu SmithF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 128 | 53 | 34 | 47-89 | 18-38 | 16-20 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 24 |
Did not play Chaz Lanier coach's decision · Ebuka Okorie coach's decision · Taurean Prince coach's decision
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 33 | 36 | 12 | 5 | 15-26 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Davion MitchellG | 33 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 26 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-11 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 23 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Bobby PortisF | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Nikola JovicF | 13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dru SmithG | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nick RichardsC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myron GardnerF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | — | 111 | 49 | 24 | 39-102 | 15-51 | 18-28 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 23 |
Team stats
Final| Pistons | Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| 47-89 | FG | 39-102 |
| 52.8% | FG% | 38.2% |
| 18-38 | 3PT | 15-51 |
| 47.4% | 3PT% | 29.4% |
| 16-20 | FT | 18-28 |
| 53 | Rebounds | 49 |
| 12 | Off reb | 18 |
| 34 | Assists | 24 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 24 | Fouls | 23 |
107.1 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Pistons on 2 days, Heat on 1 day.
What the model says
Friday, October 23ProjectedPistons 121.2 · Heat 117.8
Our linePistons −3.4
Total238.9
Win probHeat 36% · Pistons 64%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.