Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Heat129
Hawks117FinalState Farm ArenaScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Heat | 34 | 35 | 28 | 32 | 129 |
 Hawks | 25 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 117 |
Box score
FinalMiami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion MitchellG | 34 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 33 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 31 | 24 | 18 | 3 | 11-18 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 6-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 29 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby PortisF | 23 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 22 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dru SmithG | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nikola JovicF | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 129 | 52 | 36 | 51-96 | 11-29 | 16-23 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 17 |
Did not play Myron Gardner coach's decision · Nick Richards coach's decision · Ryan Conwell coach's decision · Simone Fontecchio illness
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen JohnsonF | 36 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG | 32 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 8-18 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Onyeka OkongwuF | 31 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Kingston FlemingsG | 28 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 9-12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Dyson DanielsG | 28 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron WigginsG | 24 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Luguentz DortG | 24 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CJ McCollumG | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jock LandaleC | 17 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Team | — | 117 | 40 | 35 | 46-96 | 16-38 | 9-14 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 24 |
Did not play Asa Newell coach's decision · Corey Kispert coach's decision · Dorian Finney-Smith coach's decision · Zuby Ejiofor coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Heat | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| 51-96 | FG | 46-96 |
| 53.1% | FG% | 47.9% |
| 11-29 | 3PT | 16-38 |
| 37.9% | 3PT% | 42.1% |
| 16-23 | FT | 9-14 |
| 52 | Rebounds | 40 |
| 12 | Off reb | 9 |
| 36 | Assists | 35 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
109.1 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on 1 day' rest.
What the model says
Wednesday, October 28ProjectedHeat 120.7 · Hawks 123.3
Our lineHawks −2.6
Total243.9
Win probHawks 60% · Heat 40%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.