Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Nuggets104
Pelicans91FinalSmoothie King CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nuggets | 37 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 104 |
 Pelicans | 18 | 27 | 28 | 18 | 91 |
Box score
FinalDenver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal MurrayG | 38 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 9-19 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Christian BraunG | 36 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Nikola JokicC | 34 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
| Trevon BrazileF | 32 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron GordonF | 31 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozanG | 26 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Marvin Bagley IIIF | 19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryce HopkinsF | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyus JonesG | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | — | 104 | 42 | 30 | 37-80 | 12-31 | 18-19 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 19 |
Did not play Cam Whitmore coach's decision · DaRon Holmes II coach's decision · Ryan Nembhard coach's decision · Zeke Nnaji coach's decision
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion WilliamsonF | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 10-14 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Dejounte MurrayG | 30 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Trey Murphy IIIF | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Saddiq BeyF | 26 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derik QueenC | 25 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Jeremiah FearsG | 24 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Herbert JonesF | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Karlo MatkovicF | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bennedict MathurinG | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| DeAndre JordanC | 13 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan PooleG | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce McGowensG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 91 | 41 | 20 | 34-82 | 7-30 | 16-22 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 21 |
Did not play AJ Johnson coach's decision · Julian Reese coach's decision · Trendon Watford coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Nuggets | Pelicans | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-80 | FG | 34-82 |
| 46.3% | FG% | 41.5% |
| 12-31 | 3PT | 7-30 |
| 38.7% | 3PT% | 23.3% |
| 18-19 | FT | 16-22 |
| 42 | Rebounds | 41 |
| 5 | Off reb | 8 |
| 30 | Assists | 20 |
| 11 | Steals | 14 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
102.0 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Nuggets on 1 day, Pelicans on 3 days.
What the model says
Wednesday, October 28ProjectedNuggets 120.5 · Pelicans 114.7
Our lineNuggets −5.8
Total235.3
Win probPelicans 28% · Nuggets 72%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.