College basketball matchups
Every Division I game on the slate — our projected score, win probability, spread and total, with the books' numbers beside them.
Monday, November 2 · 182 games · 120 projected · 62 against a non-D1 opponent
C Connecticut63.0proj11.9%+12.1WizLine—market
Temple75.1proj88.1%−12.1WizLine—market
Tulsa—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
SC State—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Stony Brook—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Morgan St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Grambling75.5proj51.2%−0.3WizLine—market
N Illinois75.2proj48.8%+0.3WizLine—market
App State63.4proj37.5%+3.1WizLine—market
Merrimack66.5proj62.5%−3.1WizLine—market
Winthrop82.5proj49.9%PKWizLine—market
Queens82.5proj50.1%PKWizLine—market
IU Indy—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Mercer—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Murray St84.6proj63.2%−3.3WizLine—market
Tennessee St81.3proj36.8%+3.3WizLine—market
Hofstra—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Fisk—market—market
MTSU—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Nicholls—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
UTEP72.5proj20.4%+8.3WizLine—market
N Kentucky80.8proj79.6%−8.3WizLine—market
Southern Utah—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
UTSA67.8proj11.9%+12.2WizLine—market
San José St80.0proj88.1%−12.2WizLine—market
UMBC63.7proj15.1%+10.5WizLine—market
George Mason74.2proj84.9%−10.5WizLine—market
Carn Mellon—market—market
Princeton—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
UAB72.6proj22.0%+7.7WizLine—market
McNeese80.3proj78.0%−7.7WizLine—market
UIC—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Miami72.6proj12.1%+12.1WizLine—market
Florida84.6proj87.9%−12.1WizLine—market
West Florida—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Pepperdine77.0proj17.7%+9.3WizLine—market
Cornell86.3proj82.3%−9.3WizLine—market
Oakland64.2proj0.4%+34.2WizLine—market
Michigan98.4proj99.6%−34.2WizLine—market
Holy Cross61.5proj7.0%+15.8WizLine—market
Boston College77.3proj93.0%−15.8WizLine—market
Prairie View—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
VMI—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
South Dakota—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Army51.5proj0.1%+42.2WizLine—market
Duke93.8proj99.9%−42.2WizLine—market
Monmouth63.6proj1.9%+24.0WizLine—market
St John's87.5proj98.1%−24.0WizLine—market
Rice—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Loyola MD63.9proj3.0%+21.2WizLine—market
Georgetown85.2proj97.0%−21.2WizLine—market
RI College—market—market
UAlbany—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Berry—market—market
Samford—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Lafayette64.8proj2.6%+22.0WizLine—market
Butler86.8proj97.4%−22.0WizLine—market
Maine63.3proj1.3%+26.5WizLine—market
Providence89.8proj98.7%−26.5WizLine—market
Mount St Marys68.1proj5.5%+17.2WizLine—market
Xavier85.3proj94.5%−17.2WizLine—market
Rider55.5proj2.0%+23.6WizLine—market
Pitt79.1proj98.0%−23.6WizLine—market
New Haven58.5proj2.8%+21.7WizLine—market
Syracuse80.2proj97.2%−21.7WizLine—market
Memphis65.1proj1.9%+23.9WizLine—market
Iowa State89.0proj98.1%−23.9WizLine—market
Bowling Green82.5proj81.1%−8.9WizLine—market
Georgia St73.6proj18.9%+8.9WizLine—market
Buffalo74.9proj34.9%+3.8WizLine—market
Marshall78.7proj65.1%−3.8WizLine—market
W Michigan75.9proj30.6%+5.0WizLine—market
Old Dominion80.9proj69.4%−5.0WizLine—market
E Michigan74.5proj41.8%+2.0WizLine—market
Coastal76.5proj58.2%−2.0WizLine—market
Toledo80.5proj43.8%+1.5WizLine—market
Arkansas St82.0proj56.2%−1.5WizLine—market
UMass78.4proj31.5%+4.7WizLine—market
Troy83.1proj68.5%−4.7WizLine—market
Miami OH81.4proj74.6%−6.5WizLine—market
James Madison74.9proj25.4%+6.5WizLine—market
Ball State71.9proj24.8%+6.7WizLine—market
GA Southern78.6proj75.2%−6.7WizLine—market
NJIT60.1proj1.7%+24.5WizLine—market
Dayton84.7proj98.3%−24.5WizLine—market
Navy68.7proj17.5%+9.4WizLine—market
G Washington78.1proj82.5%−9.4WizLine—market
UNC Asheville69.3proj17.3%+9.5WizLine—market
Richmond78.8proj82.7%−9.5WizLine—market
Youngstown St67.4proj20.2%+8.4WizLine—market
St Bonaventure75.8proj79.8%−8.4WizLine—market
New Hampshire68.9proj17.3%+9.5WizLine—market
Brown78.4proj82.7%−9.5WizLine—market
Air Force64.2proj5.0%+17.9WizLine—market
Wright St82.1proj95.0%−17.9WizLine—market
Charleston So76.8proj2.3%+22.9WizLine—market
South Florida99.7proj97.7%−22.9WizLine—market
American62.9proj3.5%+20.1WizLine—market
Cincinnati83.0proj96.5%−20.1WizLine—market
W Carolina64.6proj2.2%+23.2WizLine—market
North Carolina87.8proj97.8%−23.2WizLine—market
E Illinois57.8proj1.2%+26.9WizLine—market
Indiana84.6proj98.8%−26.9WizLine—market
Bucknell62.5proj5.8%+16.9WizLine—market
Maryland79.4proj94.2%−16.9WizLine—market
Stetson57.6proj1.2%+26.9WizLine—market
Clemson84.5proj98.8%−26.9WizLine—market
Bridgewater—market—market
William & Mary—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
SC Upstate74.3proj25.4%+6.5WizLine—market
East Carolina80.9proj74.6%−6.5WizLine—market
Long Island71.8proj18.0%+9.2WizLine—market
FAU81.0proj82.0%−9.2WizLine—market
Curry—market—market
Stonehill—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Little Rock62.2proj1.4%+26.0WizLine—market
VCU88.1proj98.6%−26.0WizLine—market
Dartmouth68.9proj21.4%+7.9WizLine—market
Marist76.8proj78.6%−7.9WizLine—market
MIT—market—market
Harvard—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Vermont70.8proj41.0%+2.2WizLine—market
Iona73.0proj59.0%−2.2WizLine—market
Northeastern71.1proj32.6%+4.4WizLine—market
Boston U75.6proj67.4%−4.4WizLine—market
St Thomas77.7proj74.8%−6.6WizLine—market
Presbyterian71.1proj25.2%+6.6WizLine—market
Jacksonville—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Delaware—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Jackson St58.0proj0.2%+38.4WizLine—market
Texas Tech96.4proj99.8%−38.4WizLine—market
Bellarmine61.9proj0.8%+29.6WizLine—market
Vanderbilt91.6proj99.2%−29.6WizLine—market
Elon72.1proj28.7%+5.5WizLine—market
Columbia77.6proj71.3%−5.5WizLine—market
FGCU69.5proj4.2%+19.0WizLine—market
UCF88.5proj95.8%−19.0WizLine—market
Niagara51.9proj1.6%+24.9WizLine—market
West Virginia76.8proj98.4%−24.9WizLine—market
Rivier—market—market
UMass Lowell—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Howard68.4proj12.6%+11.8WizLine—market
Yale80.1proj87.4%−11.8WizLine—market
Quinnipiac60.9proj1.2%+26.9WizLine—market
Michigan St87.8proj98.8%−26.9WizLine—market
Coast Guard—market—market
Sacred Heart—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Lamar—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Charlotte72.7proj46.3%+0.9WizLine—market
Indiana St73.6proj53.7%−0.9WizLine—market
Eureka—market—market
SIUE—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Kennesaw St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
UNC Wilmington—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Saint Vincent—market—market
Delaware St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Evansville—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
FIU—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
E Kentucky—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
NC Central63.4proj0.3%+35.9WizLine—market
Georgia99.3proj99.7%−35.9WizLine—market
Tennessee Tech69.5proj3.9%+19.5WizLine—market
Mississippi St89.0proj96.1%−19.5WizLine—market
Mercyhurst63.8proj4.8%+18.2WizLine—market
Marquette82.0proj95.2%−18.2WizLine—market
C Michigan81.5proj72.1%−5.8WizLine—market
UL Monroe75.8proj27.9%+5.8WizLine—market
Kent State76.1proj47.4%+0.6WizLine—market
Louisiana Tech76.8proj52.6%−0.6WizLine—market
Canisius59.7proj4.7%+18.3WizLine—market
Penn State78.0proj95.3%−18.3WizLine—market
Campbell68.5proj3.0%+21.2WizLine—market
NC State89.7proj97.0%−21.2WizLine—market
Le Moyne58.0proj0.7%+30.2WizLine—market
Nebraska88.2proj99.3%−30.2WizLine—market
Lipscomb78.3proj46.9%+0.7WizLine—market
SE Missouri79.0proj53.1%−0.7WizLine—market
S Indiana64.7proj1.5%+25.3WizLine—market
Belmont89.9proj98.5%−25.3WizLine—market
Saint Peter's59.1proj4.7%+18.2WizLine—market
Seton Hall77.3proj95.3%−18.2WizLine—market
Denver66.1proj1.7%+24.6WizLine—market
Wisconsin90.7proj98.3%−24.6WizLine—market
Morehead St70.5proj11.1%+12.6WizLine—market
Western KY83.1proj88.9%−12.6WizLine—market
Gonzaga71.4proj34.0%+4.0WizLine—market
Purdue75.4proj66.0%−4.0WizLine—market
Longwood—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
SF Austin—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Alabama A&M—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
LaGrange—market—market
Jax State—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Lawrence—market—market
Green Bay—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
East Texas A&M63.5proj1.6%+25.2WizLine—market
Oklahoma88.7proj98.4%−25.2WizLine—market
Kansas City63.4proj0.8%+29.5WizLine—market
Creighton92.9proj99.2%−29.5WizLine—market
West Georgia66.1proj4.8%+18.2WizLine—market
DePaul84.4proj95.2%−18.2WizLine—market
MD Eastern58.9proj1.1%+27.5WizLine—market
Wake Forest86.5proj98.9%−27.5WizLine—market
Fordham61.1proj4.3%+18.8WizLine—market
Kansas79.9proj95.7%−18.8WizLine—market
Akron80.4proj92.7%−15.4WizLine—market
Louisiana65.0proj7.3%+15.4WizLine—market
Ohio73.5proj34.5%+3.9WizLine—market
South Alabama77.4proj65.5%−3.9WizLine—market
The Citadel63.6proj14.0%+11.0WizLine—market
Loyola Chicago74.6proj86.0%−11.0WizLine—market
Lehigh64.7proj1.0%+28.0WizLine—market
Saint Louis92.7proj99.0%−28.0WizLine—market
FDU50.1proj0.2%+36.6WizLine—market
Illinois86.7proj99.8%−36.6WizLine—market
Willamette—market—market
Portland—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Austin Peay—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Adams St—market—market
California—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Southern69.0proj1.1%+27.2WizLine—market
SMU96.2proj98.9%−27.2WizLine—market
UT Martin69.6proj32.5%+4.4WizLine—market
Tulane74.1proj67.5%−4.4WizLine—market
Lindenwood68.3proj1.9%+24.1WizLine—market
TCU92.4proj98.1%−24.1WizLine—market
Utah Valley—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Binghamton54.5proj1.0%+28.2WizLine—market
Northwestern82.7proj99.0%−28.2WizLine—market
S Illinois—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Furman77.9proj64.4%−3.6WizLine—market
Bethune74.3proj35.6%+3.6WizLine—market
Siena71.4proj84.6%−10.4WizLine—market
Bryant61.1proj15.4%+10.4WizLine—market
Texas A&M-CC73.1proj51.5%−0.4WizLine—market
Texas St72.8proj48.5%+0.4WizLine—market
Norfolk St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Monmouth (IL)—market—market
Bradley—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
W Illinois59.8proj2.3%+22.9WizLine—market
Valparaiso82.7proj97.7%−22.9WizLine—market
UT Arlington—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Tarleton St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
N Dakota St—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Omaha—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Southern Miss—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Florida A&M66.8proj1.6%+25.0WizLine—market
Florida St91.8proj98.4%−25.0WizLine—market
Oral Roberts72.2proj11.1%+12.6WizLine—market
C Arkansas84.8proj88.9%−12.6WizLine—market
TAMU-Kingsvlle—market—market
UT Rio Grande—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Alcorn St61.1proj0.8%+29.3WizLine—market
Ole Miss90.4proj99.2%−29.3WizLine—market
North Texas—market—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
Chicago St57.7proj0.7%+29.9WizLine—market
Texas87.7proj99.3%−29.9WizLine—market
Abilene Chrstn68.5proj5.1%+17.8WizLine—market
Colorado86.3proj94.9%−17.8WizLine—market
Texas Southern65.5proj1.6%+25.1WizLine—market
Grand Canyon90.6proj98.4%−25.1WizLine—market
Gardner-Webb52.3proj0.1%+43.0WizLine—market
UConn95.3proj99.9%−43.0WizLine—market
North Dakota61.6proj5.3%+17.5WizLine—market
Minnesota79.1proj94.7%−17.5WizLine—marketNo projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
No projection — this opponent isn't Division I.
First week of the season: every rating is last season's, and our margins have run about two points light on favourites over this stretch. The side holds up better than the number — read a 12-point favourite as a 14-point one.
How to read this board
Two numbers sit on every row and they come from different places. Proj, the win percentage and the WizLine are ours, off the model. Market is the books' consensus. We don't subtract one from the other, and that's deliberate — a gap is a claim, and this model hasn't been screened against a college market yet.
Every club is rated on what it did against who it played — points per possession net of the opponent's strength, over a rolling year, with last season weighted at half this one. Walked forward over 5,617 Division I games, the projected margin is calibrated at a slope of 0.95 with a mean error of 9.4 points, and calls at 80% or better landed 85.5% of the time.
It's the first week, and the number runs a touch light. Every rating on the board is last season's, carried through the roster turnover, so over a season's first eight days our margins have come in about two points under what the games did — a 12-point favourite has been a 14-point one. The side holds up better than the margin: in that same stretch, calls at 80% or better landed 93% of the time. The season is at 0 games; by 450 this sentence goes away.
A game against a non-Division-I opponent gets no projection either. Those are 21% of a November slate and a third of opening night, and the visiting side's whole record with us is the two or three trips it makes to D1 gyms — a median of two games on file. Measured on them, the margin's calibration slope fell to 0.61. The card still shows the tip, the score and whatever the books are hanging.
Nothing here is a pick. There's no edge column, no badge and no ledger behind it, because an edge is a disagreement with a market and the college market hasn't been screened. When it has, that work shows up here with the units it earned.
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