College Football Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every game with an FBS team in it — our number and the book's, side by side. One day at a time; page back for the last slate.
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where our number and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Team totals run lower again — we only pull them close to kickoff, and each side is its own call.
Florida A&M Rattlers00%+54.5ours+55.5−11253%cover+2.4%
7Miami Hurricanes0100%-54.5ours-55.5−11047%cover−2.4%How This Board Has Graded
1,229 FBS games · 2024–25 · walk-forwardEvery game gets a pick, and the confidence buckets land where they claim to — when we say 80–90% the favourite wins 89.4% of the time. The reason to trust it isn't the 68.8%, though: home teams win 58.2% of these games on their own, so a model could look good doing nothing. On the 388 games where we pick the ROAD team, we're right 66.8%. A model that had only rediscovered home field would be near 42% there. What this has NOT been tested against is the closing line — we hold no price history for college football, so treat these as accuracy, not profit.
Every game is simulated drive by drive from opponent-adjusted efficiency, pace and drive rates measured on college football itself — 11.6 drives a team and a touchdown on 27% of them, not the NFL's numbers. Home field is worth about 5 points here, more than double the NFL's. There are no player projections: college has no snap counts, depth charts or injury report to build them on, so we don't publish any. The win probabilities are graded above, and the moneyline settles at a real closing price — the median across books of the last line each posted before kickoff, risking one unit a pick. That matters here more than it sounds: the model picks the favourite in nearly every game, so a flat-staked W-L would look healthy no matter what those wins were worth. About one graded game in seven has no closing line at all; those count in the record and score no units. On the moneyline tab both prices are fair prices — ours off the simulation, the market's the books' consensus with the vig taken out — and Edge is the gap between the two win probabilities, in points. Read it as distance, not money: ours sits a mean 12.5 points from the market and clears 5 points on 70% of games, which is wide and often, and a book charges the vig back on top. The spread and total sit next to the book's number and are not priced: we can tell you how accurate they are (margin within 13.0 points on average, total within 13.4) but not whether betting them would have made money. Model ncaaf-sim-1/11of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).