College Football Matchups
Projected score, spread and win probability for every FBS game — our number and the book's, side by side.
Saturday, August 29 · how the model graded
ML4-3+1.0u
Spread3-4−1.3u
Total0-3−3.0u
Team total3-3−0.3u
Season · all graded games
ML4-3+1.0u
Spread3-4−1.3u
Total0-3−3.0u
Team total3-3−0.3u
Every game gets a moneyline pick. Spread, total and team total are graded only where our number and the book's disagree enough to be saying something, so those counts run lower on purpose. Team totals run lower again — we only pull them close to kickoff, and each side is its own call. Units at −110, one unit a pick, priced pre-kick.
MatchupWin %MarketProj ptsFinal
Saturday, August 29
Final · 15–1052.0our total45.5marketOver✗
North Carolina Tar Heels20%26%market20.5proj pts15final
TCU Horned Frogs✗80%our pick74%market33.1proj pts10finalFinal · 26–4265.0our total61.5market
San José State Spartans5%—market19.6proj pts26final
14USC Trojans✓95%our pick—market44.9proj pts42finalFinal · 8–3452.0our total51.5market
NC State Wolfpack27%38%market22.3proj pts8final
Virginia Cavaliers✓73%our pick62%market31.3proj pts34finalFinal · 17–2858.0our total52.5marketOver✗
Sacramento State Hornets46%26%market28.3proj pts17final
Eastern Michigan Eagles✓54%our pick74%market30.0proj pts28finalFinal · 17–3455.0our total53.5market
New Mexico State Aggies12%4%market18.9proj pts17final
Florida State Seminoles✓88%our pick96%market36.3proj pts34finalFinal · 27–3747.0our total48.5market
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors✗53%our pick37%market24.1proj pts27final
Stanford Cardinal47%63%market22.9proj pts37finalFinal · 27–2169.0our total55.5marketOver✗
Memphis Tigers29%37%market30.1proj pts27final
UNLV Rebels✗71%our pick63%market39.0proj pts21finalThursday, September 3
6:00 PM ET72.0our total53.0marketOver
Massachusetts Minutemen3%3%market22.1proj pts——
Rutgers Scarlet Knights97%our pick97%market51.1proj pts——7:00 PM ET42.0our total48.5marketUnder
Akron Zips28%7%market17.3proj pts——
Wake Forest Demon Deacons72%our pick93%market25.6proj pts——7:00 PM ET52.0our total48.5market
UAlbany Great Danes2%5%market11.1proj pts——
Buffalo Bulls98%our pick95%market41.0proj pts——7:00 PM ET58.0our total56.0market
Merrimack Warriors2%3%market13.6proj pts——
Delaware Blue Hens98%our pick97%market45.1proj pts——7:00 PM ET58.0our total51.5market
West Georgia Wolves2%6%market13.3proj pts——
Kennesaw State Owls98%our pick94%market44.6proj pts——7:00 PM ET58.0our total58.5market
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats1%1%market11.6proj pts——
UCF Knights99%our pick99%market46.7proj pts——8:00 PM ET57.0our total62.0market
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions0%—market8.8proj pts——
25Missouri Tigers100%our pick—market48.8proj pts——8:00 PM ET52.0our total51.5market
Eastern Illinois Panthers1%—market9.2proj pts——
Minnesota Golden Gophers99%our pick—market43.5proj pts——8:00 PM ET57.0our total50.5marketOver
Colorado Buffaloes19%32%market21.9proj pts——
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets81%our pick68%market35.7proj pts——9:00 PM ET65.0our total55.5marketOver
UAB Blazers12%4%market23.9proj pts——
Illinois Fighting Illini88%our pick96%market42.3proj pts——9:00 PM ET68.0our total57.5market
Idaho Vandals0%3%market10.9proj pts——
21Utah Utes100%our pick97%market56.8proj pts——Friday, September 4
6:30 PM ET58.0our total53.5marketOver
San José State Spartans22%36%market23.2proj pts——Eastern Michigan Eagles78%our pick64%market35.0proj pts——7:00 PM ET62.0our total65.5market
North Carolina A&T Aggies1%5%market12.6proj pts——
Georgia State Panthers99%our pick95%market50.3proj pts——7:00 PM ET65.0our total57.5market
Indiana State Sycamores1%—market15.3proj pts——
Purdue Boilermakers99%our pick—market49.4proj pts——8:00 PM ET44.0our total49.5marketUnder
Toledo Rockets66%our pick23%market25.4proj pts——
Michigan State Spartans34%77%market19.4proj pts——8:00 PM ET41.0our total50.5marketUnder
UTEP Miners10%—market12.3proj pts——
10Oklahoma Sooners90%our pick—market30.2proj pts——8:00 PM ET55.0our total53.5market
Long Island University Sharks2%—market12.7proj pts——
Kansas Jayhawks98%our pick—market43.8proj pts——9:00 PM ET48.0our total51.5market
Fresno State Bulldogs24%7%market19.3proj pts——14USC Trojans76%our pick93%market29.8proj pts——9:00 PM ET49.0our total48.5market
7Miami Hurricanes84%our pick93%market32.4proj pts——Stanford Cardinal16%7%market17.6proj pts——Saturday, September 5
12:00 PM ET55.0our total57.5market
New Hampshire Wildcats8%2%market17.0proj pts——
Syracuse Orange92%our pick98%market38.2proj pts——12:00 PM ET48.0our total54.5marketUnder
East Carolina Pirates29%4%market20.5proj pts——
13Alabama Crimson Tide71%our pick96%market28.5proj pts——12:00 PM ET48.0our total56.5marketUnder
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers34%9%market21.0proj pts——
West Virginia Mountaineers66%our pick91%market27.0proj pts——12:00 PM ET52.0our total47.5market
Tarleton State Texans25%44%market21.3proj pts——
Bowling Green Falcons75%our pick56%market31.7proj pts——12:00 PM ET60.0our total51.5market
Bryant Bulldogs0%—market10.8proj pts——
Army Black Knights100%our pick—market49.7proj pts——12:00 PM ET45.0our total51.5marketUnder
Oregon State Beavers21%10%market17.6proj pts——
23Houston Cougars79%our pick90%market29.3proj pts——12:00 PM ET51.0our total47.5market
Ohio Bobcats35%7%market22.6proj pts——
Nebraska Cornhuskers65%our pick93%market28.5proj pts——12:00 PM ET66.0our total55.5marketOver
North Texas Mean Green13%—market24.3proj pts——
6Indiana Hoosiers87%our pick—market42.1proj pts——12:00 PM ET52.0our total52.5market
Liberty Flames6%32%market15.3proj pts——
James Madison Dukes94%our pick68%market37.9proj pts——12:00 PM ET70.0our total58.5market
Lafayette Leopards1%12%market18.3proj pts——
UConn Huskies99%our pick88%market52.5proj pts——12:30 PM ET55.0our total56.5market
Ball State Cardinals1%—market12.1proj pts——
1Ohio State Buckeyes99%our pick—market44.4proj pts——12:30 PM ET43.0our total49.5marketUnder
Miami (OH) RedHawks30%15%market18.1proj pts——
Pittsburgh Panthers70%our pick85%market25.7proj pts——12:45 PM ET52.0our total53.5market
Kent State Golden Flashes16%2%market19.3proj pts——
South Carolina Gamecocks84%our pick98%market34.2proj pts——1:00 PM ET58.0our total53.5market
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks0%4%market10.3proj pts——
Iowa State Cyclones100%our pick96%market48.0proj pts——1:00 PM ET68.0our total62.5market
Youngstown State Penguins4%7%market20.3proj pts——
Kentucky Wildcats96%our pick93%market47.9proj pts——1:00 PM ET75.0our total58.5market
Duquesne Dukes1%4%market19.3proj pts——
Air Force Falcons99%our pick96%market56.3proj pts——2:00 PM ET65.0our total51.5market
Rhode Island Rams8%22%market22.4proj pts——
Temple Owls92%our pick78%market43.7proj pts——3:00 PM ET58.0our total55.5market
Tennessee State Tigers0%—market6.9proj pts——
3Georgia Bulldogs100%our pick—market50.9proj pts——3:30 PM ET49.0our total53.5market
Maine Black Bears6%14%market13.8proj pts——
App State Mountaineers94%our pick86%market36.4proj pts——3:30 PM ET54.0our total52.5market
Boise State Broncos18%6%market20.0proj pts——
2Oregon Ducks82%our pick94%market33.9proj pts——3:30 PM ET68.0our total51.0marketOver
Tulane Green Wave47%25%market33.6proj pts——
Duke Blue Devils53%our pick75%market34.7proj pts——3:30 PM ET52.0our total46.5market
The Citadel Bulldogs9%12%market16.3proj pts——
Charlotte 49ers91%our pick88%market36.3proj pts——3:30 PM ET65.0our total54.5marketOver
Marshall Thundering Herd16%6%market24.5proj pts——
18Penn State Nittany Lions84%our pick94%market40.3proj pts——3:30 PM ET55.0our total59.5marketUnder
Baylor Bears21%29%market22.1proj pts——
Auburn Tigers79%our pick71%market34.3proj pts——3:30 PM ET66.0our total53.5market
Towson Tigers1%3%market16.1proj pts——
Navy Midshipmen99%our pick97%market51.1proj pts——3:30 PM ET69.0our total51.5marketOver
Boston College Eagles21%28%market28.1proj pts——
Cincinnati Bearcats79%our pick72%market40.9proj pts——3:30 PM ET65.0our total57.5market
Fordham Rams0%—market7.0proj pts——
North Dakota State Bison100%our pick—market58.8proj pts——3:30 PM ET63.0our total60.5market
Texas State Bobcats30%4%market28.0proj pts——
5Texas Longhorns70%our pick96%market36.2proj pts——3:30 PM ET69.0our total66.5market
Furman Paladins0%—market12.0proj pts——
20Tennessee Volunteers100%our pick—market57.8proj pts——3:45 PM ET48.0our total60.5marketUnder
Oklahoma State Cowboys28%82%market19.8proj pts——
Tulsa Golden Hurricane72%our pick18%market28.5proj pts——4:15 PM ET42.0our total45.5market
Northern Illinois Huskies12%2%market13.5proj pts——
22Iowa Hawkeyes88%our pick98%market29.6proj pts——4:15 PM ET72.0our total63.5market
North Alabama Lions0%—market14.3proj pts——
Arkansas Razorbacks100%our pick—market57.8proj pts——5:00 PM ET56.0our total52.5market
Alcorn State Braves2%7%market12.8proj pts——
Southern Miss Golden Eagles98%our pick93%market43.9proj pts——6:00 PM ET58.0our total55.5market
Norfolk State Spartans0%—market7.8proj pts——
Old Dominion Monarchs100%our pick—market50.5proj pts——How This Board Has Graded
1,229 FBS games · 2024–25 · walk-forwardWe said 90%+95.4%
We said 80–90%89.4%
We said 70–80%74.0%
We said 60–70%62.6%
Every game68.8%
No model at all58.2%
Every game gets a pick, and the confidence buckets land where they claim to — when we say 80–90% the favourite wins 89.4% of the time. The reason to trust it isn't the 68.8%, though: home teams win 58.2% of these games on their own, so a model could look good doing nothing. On the 388 games where we pick the ROAD team, we're right 66.8%. A model that had only rediscovered home field would be near 42% there. What this has NOT been tested against is the closing line — we hold no price history for college football, so treat these as accuracy, not profit.
Every game is simulated drive by drive from opponent-adjusted efficiency, pace and drive rates measured on college football itself — 11.6 drives a team and a touchdown on 27% of them, not the NFL's numbers. Home field is worth about 5 points here, more than double the NFL's. There are no player projections: college has no snap counts, depth charts or injury report to build them on, so we don't publish any. The win probabilities are graded above. The spread and total are shown next to the book's number and are not graded against it — we hold no price history for college football yet, so we can tell you how accurate they are (margin within 13.0 points on average, total within 13.4) but not whether betting them would have made money. Model ncaaf-sim-1/10of20. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).