This week
Alex is hosting ATL. We project 2.6 tackles, 0.3 sacks. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How much he's on the field
Across 20 games, Alex has been on the field for 73% of his team's snaps. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. The model weighs this above efficiency for a simple reason: snap share predicts next week better than last week's yardage does.
What kind of linebacker he is
Alex has 75 tackles across 20 games — 3.8 a game. Add 13.5 sacks. Linebacker tackle counts track team context as much as ability — a defense that's on the field a lot, or one whose line occupies blockers, inflates them. The model reads volume against how many plays his defense actually faces rather than treating tackles as a raw total.
His last 5 games
Over that stretch Alex has 14 tackles and 3 sacks. Worth noting: his snap share is trending up — 86% lately against 73% overall. Five games is a small sample in any sport and a tiny one in football, where a team plays seventeen times a year — so recent form informs the projection without overriding the usage underneath it.
How the model reads him
Every projection here is built the same way for Alex as for a starter on a contender — simulate the game, then apportion it by role. No manual adjustments, no gut calls on who's due. The weighting behind it is proprietary and re-tuned on real outcomes; everything it produces is public and graded against the box score.
What we'd flag
Three things to carry. The season is seventeen games, so most trends here are small samples wearing a confident number. Game script rewrites usage — a team trailing throws, a team ahead runs. And injury news lands after we publish.