This week
Chris is hosting CLE. We project 25.5 rushing yards. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How much he's on the field
Across 20 games, Chris has been on the field for 27% of his team's snaps. That's a limited role, and it caps everything else on this page. A player on a third of the snaps can't produce like a starter no matter how efficient he is, and the projection reflects the opportunity rather than the talent. The model weighs this above efficiency for a simple reason: snap share predicts next week better than last week's yardage does.
What kind of back he is
Chris has 157 carries for 731 yards (4.7 a carry) and 10 rushing touchdowns. He's barely used in the passing game, which caps his floor: a two-down back only touches the ball when his side is ahead or grinding. Running-back yardage swings hard on the blocking in front of him, which is why the model weighs opportunity — carries and targets — above efficiency.
His last 5 games
Over that stretch Chris has 330 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending up — 44% lately against 27% overall. Five games is a small sample in any sport and a tiny one in football, where a team plays seventeen times a year — so recent form informs the projection without overriding the usage underneath it.
How the model reads him
Every projection here is built the same way for Chris as for a starter on a contender — simulate the game, then apportion it by role. No manual adjustments, no gut calls on who's due. The weighting behind it is proprietary and re-tuned on real outcomes; everything it produces is public and graded against the box score.
What we'd flag
Three things to carry. The season is seventeen games, so most trends here are small samples wearing a confident number. Game script rewrites usage — a team trailing throws, a team ahead runs. And injury news lands after we publish. For Chris specifically, he's on the field for a minority of snaps, which caps the projection regardless of how he's playing.