MatchWiz

Dyami Brown

WRWSHWashington Commanders

This week — @ PHI · Sun, Sep 13, 4 PM

Receiving

Targets
1.7
Receptions
1.0
Yards
12
TD
0.01

Touchdown

Anytime TD
1%

Projected from a drive-level simulation of this game, run thousands of times. A projection, not a play — the market is sharper than we are on NFL props, and we say so.

Season Projection

· 19 pts · WR120 · 7.6 games
2@PHI13@DAL22SEA32IND42NYG52@SF6BYE72PHI82LAR93@NYG102CIN113@ARI122@TEN132HOU142ATL152@MIN162@JAX172DAL18

Projected points per week, from the same simulation as the season total. Bars are scaled to this player's own best week, so the shape shows which weeks carry him. The season number already accounts for the games we expect him to miss; these weekly bars do not — each is what he does in a week he plays.

This week

Dyami is on the road against PHI. We project 11.8 receiving yards on 1.7 targets. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.

How much he's on the field

Dyami has averaged 51% of his team's snaps across 20 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. Opportunity is the first thing the model reads and the last thing it gives up on — production without snaps is noise, and snaps without production usually corrects.

What kind of receiver he is

Dyami has caught 51 of 77 targets (66%) for 619 yards and 2 touchdowns — 8 yards per target. Yards per target is the honest efficiency number here, because catch rate mostly measures how far downfield he's used: a slot receiver on screens will always catch more of them than a deep threat, without being better.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Dyami has 41 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending down — 29% lately against 51% overall. In a sport with seventeen games, a five-game window is closer to an anecdote than a trend — which is why usage, not this, anchors the number.

How the model reads him

The number on Dyami is a share of a simulated game. First the matchup: possessions, field position, how each offense is likely to move. Then his slice of it, set by usage rather than by reputation. How those pieces are weighted is ours and gets re-tuned against results; the output is published and graded, which is the half you can check.

What we'd flag

Football's sample sizes are brutal — seventeen games a season means a "trend" is often four data points. Injuries and game script move usage more than talent does week to week, and a blowout can erase a starter's second half.

Dyami Brown — FAQ

What is Dyami Brown projected for this week?

Dyami Brown faces PHI on the road. The projection on this page comes from a drive-level simulation of that game — possessions, how far each side moves, and what share flows through him — rather than from a season average.

How much does Dyami Brown play?

He's averaged 51% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Dyami Brown's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsTgtRecRecYdCarRushYdTD
2025 · 18TEN13%118000
2025 · 15NYJ8%000140
2025 · 11LAC27%100000
2025 · 10HOU37%100000
2025 · 9LV60%7325140
2025 · 7LAR30%4250000
2025 · 6SEA64%5213170
2025 · 5KC66%4215000
2025 · 3HOU33%327000
2025 · 2CIN80%7557191
2025 · 1CAR71%4352260
2024 · 21PHI77%5342000
2024 · 20DET83%8698000
2024 · 19TB62%5589001
2024 · 18DAL43%4316180
2024 · 16PHI66%5456000
2024 · 15NO78%4330000
2024 · 13TEN52%5435140
2024 · 12DAL34%22221140
2024 · 11PHI38%214000

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).