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Jalon Daniels

QBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers

This week — @ DAL · Thu, Oct 8, 8 PM

Passing

Cmp / Att
22.4 / 33.2
Yards
242
TD
1.0
INT
1.1

Rushing

Carries
4.2
Yards
20
TD
0.08

Touchdown

Anytime TD
9%

Projected from a drive-level simulation of this game, run thousands of times. A projection, not a play — the market is sharper than we are on NFL props, and we say so.

Posted Props

Jalon Daniels: posted prop lines with our projection and both sides' odds on the over
MarketLineWizLineOverMkt
Passing yardsover17224279%50%
Completionsover17.522.477%50%
Pass attemptsover28.533.269%51%
Passing TDsin line0.51.067%66%
Interceptionsin line0.51.166%61%
Rushing yardsunder41.519.77%50%
Carriesunder7.54.28%50%

The book's line, Jalon's projected number, and both sides' odds on the over — ours out of the same simulation as the projection above, the market's de-vigged so the hold isn't counted as disagreement. Where they split, the market is usually right. We grade ourselves against it and we lose on NFL props, so read this as a reference point, not a play.

Rest of Season

· 139 pts · QB20 · 9.0 games
18@DAL515PIT616@CAR715ATL816@CHI9—BYE1016@DET1116CAR1215LAC1315@BAL1414NO1515@ATL1616LAR1714@NO18

Projected points per week, from the same simulation as the season total. Bars are scaled to this player's own best week, so the shape shows which weeks carry him. The season number already accounts for the games we expect him to miss; these weekly bars do not — each is what he does in a week he plays.

This week

Jalon is on the road against DAL. We project 242.2 passing yards, 19.7 rushing yards. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.

What kind of quarterback he is

Jalon has completed 19 of 30 (63%) for 148 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions — 4.9 yards an attempt. Yards per attempt is the number to watch: completion percentage rewards checkdowns, and a quarterback can complete 70% of his passes without ever threatening anybody.

How the model reads him

The number on Jalon is a share of a simulated game. First the matchup: possessions, field position, how each offense is likely to move. Then his slice of it, set by usage rather than by reputation. How those pieces are weighted is ours and gets re-tuned against results; the output is published and graded, which is the half you can check.

What we'd flag

Football's sample sizes are brutal — seventeen games a season means a "trend" is often four data points. Injuries and game script move usage more than talent does week to week, and a blowout can erase a starter's second half. For Jalon specifically, Jalon has only 2 games in our log, so every rate on this page is fragile.

Jalon Daniels — FAQ

What is Jalon Daniels projected for this week?

Jalon Daniels faces DAL on the road. The projection on this page comes from a drive-level simulation of that game — possessions, how far each side moves, and what share flows through him — rather than from a season average.

Are Jalon Daniels's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsCmpAttYdsTDINTRush
2026 · 4GB100%19271481255
2026 · 3MIN6%030019

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).