This week
Kaelon is on the road against SEA. We project 24.7 rushing yards. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How much he's on the field
29% — that's Kaelon's average snap share over 4 games. That's a limited role, and it caps everything else on this page. A player on a third of the snaps can't produce like a starter no matter how efficient he is, and the projection reflects the opportunity rather than the talent. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.
What kind of back he is
Kaelon has 31 carries for 120 yards (3.9 a carry) and 0 rushing touchdowns. He's barely used in the passing game, which caps his floor: a two-down back only touches the ball when his side is ahead or grinding. Running-back yardage swings hard on the blocking in front of him, which is why the model weighs opportunity — carries and targets — above efficiency.
His last 4 games
Over that stretch Kaelon has 125 total yards. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.
How the model reads him
Kaelon's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.
What we'd flag
Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection. For Kaelon specifically, Kaelon has only 4 games in our log, so every rate on this page is fragile; and he's on the field for a minority of snaps, which caps the projection regardless of how he's playing.