Projected from a drive-level simulation of this game, run thousands of times. A projection, not a play — the market is sharper than we are on NFL props, and we say so.
Projected points per week, from the same simulation as the season total. Bars are scaled to this player's own best week, so the shape shows which weeks carry him. The season number already accounts for the games we expect him to miss; these weekly bars do not — each is what he does in a week he plays.
This week
KC is on the road against JAX. We project 39.7 receiving yards on 5.1 targets. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How the model reads him
KC's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.
What we'd flag
Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.
KC Concepcion — FAQ
What is KC Concepcion projected for this week?
KC Concepcion faces JAX on the road. The projection on this page comes from a drive-level simulation of that game — possessions, how far each side moves, and what share flows through him — rather than from a season average.
Are KC Concepcion's projections betting advice?
No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Game Log
No NFL game log yet. Rookies project off their depth-chart rank until they play.
Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
