This week
Kirk is hosting MIA. We project 251.3 passing yards, 11.6 rushing yards. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How much he's on the field
Kirk has averaged 91% of his team's snaps across 20 games. That's a full-time role. Snap share at this level is the most stable input we have — it changes slowly, and it survives a bad game in a way that yardage never does. Opportunity is the first thing the model reads and the last thing it gives up on — production without snaps is noise, and snaps without production usually corrects.
What kind of quarterback he is
Kirk has completed 392 of 603 (65%) for 4365 yards, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions — 7.2 yards an attempt. Yards per attempt is the number to watch: completion percentage rewards checkdowns, and a quarterback can complete 70% of his passes without ever threatening anybody.
His last 5 games
Over that stretch Kirk has 1036 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending up — 100% lately against 91% overall. In a sport with seventeen games, a five-game window is closer to an anecdote than a trend — which is why usage, not this, anchors the number.
How the model reads him
The number on Kirk is a share of a simulated game. First the matchup: possessions, field position, how each offense is likely to move. Then his slice of it, set by usage rather than by reputation. How those pieces are weighted is ours and gets re-tuned against results; the output is published and graded, which is the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Football's sample sizes are brutal — seventeen games a season means a "trend" is often four data points. Injuries and game script move usage more than talent does week to week, and a blowout can erase a starter's second half.