MatchWiz

Marcus Mariota

QBWSHWashington Commanders

No projection this week — he isn't on the current slate.

No projection this week

Marcus doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.

How much he's on the field

66% — that's Marcus's average snap share over 20 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.

What kind of quarterback he is

Marcus has completed 229 of 363 (63%) for 2695 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions — 7.4 yards an attempt. He's also run for 533 yards, which matters more than it looks: rushing production is the most reliable floor a quarterback has, because it doesn't depend on anyone catching anything. Yards per attempt is the number to watch: completion percentage rewards checkdowns, and a quarterback can complete 70% of his passes without ever threatening anybody.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Marcus has 996 total yards. Worth noting: his snap share is trending up — 77% lately against 66% overall. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.

How the model reads him

Marcus's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.

What we'd flag

Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.

Marcus Mariota — FAQ

How much does Marcus Mariota play?

He's averaged 66% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Marcus Mariota's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsCmpAttYdsTDINTRush
2025 · 16PHI59%7149500-1
2025 · 15NYG100%10192111043
2025 · 14MIN25%2430017
2025 · 13DEN100%28502942155
2025 · 11MIA99%20302131149
2025 · 10DET94%16222132022
2025 · 8KC100%21302131228
2025 · 7DAL31%410630134
2025 · 4ATL100%16271562120
2025 · 3LV100%15212071040
2024 · 20DET1%00000-1
2024 · 19TB1%000002
2024 · 18DAL55%15181612056
2024 · 7CAR86%18232052034
2024 · 5CLE13%13-2002
2023 · 18NYG57%13201481146
2023 · 13SF7%2316006
2022 · 13PIT100%13241671117
2022 · 12WSH100%15251741149
2022 · 11CHI100%13201311025

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).