MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Nate Boerkircher

TEJAXJacksonville Jaguars

This week — vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13, 1 PM

Receiving

Targets
1.4
Receptions
1.0
Yards
11
TD
0.04

Touchdown

Anytime TD
4%

Projected from a drive-level simulation of this game, run thousands of times. A projection, not a play — the market is sharper than we are on NFL props, and we say so.

Season Projection

· 14 pts · TE54 · 6.3 games
2CLE12@DEN22NE32@CIN42PHI52HOU6—BYE72IND82@BAL92@TEN102@NYG112TEN122@CHI132PIT142@HOU153@DAL163WSH172@IND18

Projected points per week, from the same simulation as the season total. Bars are scaled to this player's own best week, so the shape shows which weeks carry him. The season number already accounts for the games we expect him to miss; these weekly bars do not — each is what he does in a week he plays.

This week

Nate is hosting CLE. We project 10.5 receiving yards on 1.4 targets. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.

How the model reads him

The number on Nate is a share of a simulated game. First the matchup: possessions, field position, how each offense is likely to move. Then his slice of it, set by usage rather than by reputation. How those pieces are weighted is ours and gets re-tuned against results; the output is published and graded, which is the half you can check.

What we'd flag

Football's sample sizes are brutal — seventeen games a season means a "trend" is often four data points. Injuries and game script move usage more than talent does week to week, and a blowout can erase a starter's second half.

Nate Boerkircher — FAQ

What is Nate Boerkircher projected for this week?

Nate Boerkircher faces CLE at home. The projection on this page comes from a drive-level simulation of that game — possessions, how far each side moves, and what share flows through him — rather than from a season average.

Are Nate Boerkircher's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

No NFL game log yet. Rookies project off their depth-chart rank until they play.

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).