This week
Nicholas is hosting HOU. We project 14 rushing yards. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How the model reads him
Every projection here is built the same way for Nicholas as for a starter on a contender — simulate the game, then apportion it by role. No manual adjustments, no gut calls on who's due. The weighting behind it is proprietary and re-tuned on real outcomes; everything it produces is public and graded against the box score.
What we'd flag
Three things to carry. The season is seventeen games, so most trends here are small samples wearing a confident number. Game script rewrites usage — a team trailing throws, a team ahead runs. And injury news lands after we publish. For Nicholas specifically, Nicholas has only 2 games in our log, so every rate on this page is fragile; and he's on the field for a minority of snaps, which caps the projection regardless of how he's playing.