This week
Phil is on the road against NYG. We project 12 rushing yards, 15.9 receiving yards on 2.7 targets. The number comes out of a drive-level simulation of the game rather than a season average — it asks how many possessions his side is likely to get, what they do with them, and how much of that flows through him.
How the model reads him
The number on Phil is a share of a simulated game. First the matchup: possessions, field position, how each offense is likely to move. Then his slice of it, set by usage rather than by reputation. How those pieces are weighted is ours and gets re-tuned against results; the output is published and graded, which is the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Football's sample sizes are brutal — seventeen games a season means a "trend" is often four data points. Injuries and game script move usage more than talent does week to week, and a blowout can erase a starter's second half. For Phil specifically, Phil has only 1 game in our log, so every rate on this page is fragile; and he's on the field for a minority of snaps, which caps the projection regardless of how he's playing.