MatchWiz

Van Jefferson

WRWSHWashington Commanders

No projection this week — he isn't on the current slate.

No projection this week

Van doesn't have a projection right now — either his team is on a bye, the week's slate hasn't been simulated yet, or he isn't in a position to draw usage. His game log and the usage read below are the real record either way, and this page picks him back up as soon as there's a game to simulate.

How much he's on the field

66% — that's Van's average snap share over 20 games. That's a rotational-to-starter share. It's the number most likely to move his projection week to week, because a swing of ten points of snap share moves everything downstream with it. This is the number to check first on any football page. Everything else here is downstream of it.

What kind of receiver he is

Van has caught 38 of 65 targets (58%) for 442 yards and 3 touchdowns — 6.8 yards per target. Yards per target is the honest efficiency number here, because catch rate mostly measures how far downfield he's used: a slot receiver on screens will always catch more of them than a deep threat, without being better.

His last 5 games

Over that stretch Van has 150 total yards. A handful of games is thin evidence in a seventeen-game season. It nudges the projection; it doesn't drive it.

How the model reads him

Van's projection starts with the game, not with him. We simulate the matchup drive by drive — how many possessions each side gets, how far they travel, how often they score — and then ask what share of that flows through him given his role. That ordering matters: a productive player on a team that runs 55 plays a game has a lower ceiling than a lesser one on a team that runs 70.

What we'd flag

Read this knowing the limits. A seventeen-game season makes every rate noisy; game script can invert a player's usage inside one afternoon; and depth-chart changes often surface too late to be in the projection.

Van Jefferson — FAQ

How much does Van Jefferson play?

He's averaged 66% of his team's snaps across 20 games in our log. Snap share is the most stable input on this page — it moves slowly and it survives a bad game, which is why the model weighs opportunity above efficiency.

Are Van Jefferson's projections betting advice?

No. Every number here is a research signal from a statistical model, published with the graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned against real results and can be wrong on any given week. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Game Log

WkOppSnapsTgtRecRecYdCarRushYdTD
2025 · 17NO31%3346000
2025 · 16KC68%2224000
2025 · 15SF58%5143000
2025 · 14CLE73%4217000
2025 · 13JAX75%4320000
2025 · 12SEA91%1111000
2025 · 11HOU92%7322001
2025 · 9LAC83%4121000
2025 · 8IND79%816000
2025 · 7NE85%4441000
2025 · 6LV74%6475000
2025 · 4HOU38%116000
2025 · 3IND34%118000
2025 · 2LAR26%2210000
2024 · 19BAL74%2237001
2024 · 18CIN67%4318000
2024 · 17KC43%100000
2024 · 16BAL78%3227000
2024 · 15PHI81%210000
2024 · 14CLE74%1110001

Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).