Plays of the Day: 19-31, +8%
The headline call went 19 for 31 this week, an 8% ROI. That's the number that carries the site's name, and it's the only record that gets to wear the "Plays of the Day" label.
Everything else below sits underneath it — ranked matchups, stat boards, and the full list of posted plays, which is a bigger and separate pool.
Ranked matchups, tier by tier
Top 3 ranked matchups went 65 of 116. Top 5 went 239 of 490. Top 10 went 456 of 991. The full board finished 5,865 of 16,079.
That's the shape MatchWiz always takes — hit rate drifts down as the board widens, which is exactly what a ranking system should look like when it's actually ranking.
The stat boards
Hits was the strongest full-board number of the week at 61% across 1,746 lines. Total bases sat at 50%, H+R+RBI at 53%, DFS points at 45%.
On the pitcher side, Pitcher walks led with 57% on the full board and 76% in the top 3 across 181 lines. Hits allowed ran 58%, Earned runs 52% (61% top 3), Pitcher outs 51% (57% top 3), Pitcher strikeouts 50% (52% top 3), and Pitcher DFS points 31% (43% top 3).
Home runs and Stolen bases were the week's weak spots — 12% and 6% respectively, both across 1,746 lines. Runs (39%), Walks (29%) and RBI (31%) were middling.
The posted plays: overs carried, unders got buried
The posted-play record for the week was 19 of 31. Split by type: team totals went 13 of 19, props went 6 of 12. Split by lean: overs went 17 of 25, unders went 2 of 6.
The Athletics' team total over 2.5 ran six times this week — hit on Sept 1 (actual 5), Sept 3 (actual 7), Sept 4 (actual 7) and Sept 5 (actual 6), missed on Aug 31 (actual 1) and Sept 6 (actual 0). Four of six.
The biggest strikeout miss was Gavin Williams, called under 8.5 strikeouts at -139 on Sept 6 — he threw 11. Tyler Glasnow's under 7.5 also missed, going for 8 on Sept 5. On the other side, Tarik Skubal's under 8.5 strikeouts held at 6, and Kyle Leahy's over 2.5 at plus-106 landed with 6 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante's over 2.5 strikeouts missed flat, finishing at 1. Eduardo Rodriguez's under 4.5 also went the wrong way, allowing 6.
UFC: 11 of 19, and the upset that hurt
MatchWiz went 11 of 19 on straight picks across Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 and UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse.
The biggest upset was Oumar Sy, given a 70% win probability, who lost by KO/TKO.
Soccer: 41 games across six leagues
Across bundesliga, epl, laliga, ligue1, mls and seriea, Match result went 19 of 41. Over/under 2.5 went 21 of 41. Both teams to score went 21 of 41 as well.
Every posted play this week
19 of 31 landed — 13 of 19 on team totals, 6 of 12 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-31 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -135 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-31 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 5.5 | -118 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-31 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -146 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-01 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-01 | Boston Red Sox | team total over 3.5 | -113 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-01 | Gabriel Hughes | over 3.5 strikeouts | -142 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-01 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 3 | Hit |
| 09-02 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-02 | Justin Hagenman | over 2.5 strikeouts | -165 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-03 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -135 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-03 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -157 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-04 | Andre Pallante | over 2.5 strikeouts | -164 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-04 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -120 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-04 | Shane Baz | under 4.5 strikeouts | +121 | 6 | Miss |
| 09-05 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -135 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Brandon Pfaadt | under 4.5 strikeouts | -155 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 4.5 | -130 | 10 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Mason Adams | over 3.5 strikeouts | -113 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Miami Marlins | team total over 3.5 | -118 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-05 | Tyler Glasnow | under 7.5 strikeouts | -140 | 8 | Miss |
| 09-05 | Washington Nationals | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-06 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -132 | 0 | Miss |
| 09-06 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-06 | Detroit Tigers | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-06 | Eduardo Rodriguez | under 4.5 strikeouts | -138 | 6 | Miss |
| 09-06 | Gavin Williams | under 8.5 strikeouts | -139 | 11 | Miss |
| 09-06 | Kyle Leahy | over 2.5 strikeouts | +106 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-06 | Randy Dobnak | over 2.5 strikeouts | -138 | 3 | Hit |
| 09-06 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 5.5 | -128 | 10 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.