The Play of the Day Pool
Fifteen of 32 Plays of the Day hit this week. That's a -18% ROI on the headline call, the roughest stretch we've posted in a while.
632 rows got graded across MLB, UFC and soccer this week. The Play of the Day pool is the smallest, most exposed slice of that — one call a day, no hedging, no averaging out.
The Posted Plays
The posted-play record — every team total and player prop the site surfaced, not just the headline call — also finished 15-for-32. Team totals went 12 of 22. Props went 3 of 10. Overs hit 11 of 23; unders hit 4 of 9.
The strikeout unders were the pain point. Emmet Sheehan was called under 6.5 strikeouts at -135 on September 7th — he threw 10. Jacob Misiorowski went under 8.5 at -132 on the 8th and landed on 9. Dylan Cease was under 8.5 on the 13th and also finished with 9. Payton Tolle, under 6.5 that same day, gave up 7. Four strikeout-under calls, four misses.
The overs weren't clean either. Wilber Dotel was called over 1.5 strikeouts at -164 on the 11th and got exactly 1. Gabriel Hughes went over 3.5 on the 13th and stopped at 2.
The hits came elsewhere. Chase Burns went over 3.5 strikeouts on the 13th and got 5. Kyle Leahy went over 2.5 on the 12th and got 4. Chris Sale was called under 7.5 on the 11th and came in at 6. Texas Rangers team totals missed twice in three days — over 3.5 at -108 on the 9th (actual 2), then over 3.5 at +122 on the 10th (actual 3). Pittsburgh Pirates went the other way: over 3.5 at +105 missed on the 11th (actual 2), then over 2.5 at -145 hit on the 13th (actual 4).
Ranked Matchups
Away from the single headline call, the ranked boards had a wider week. The top 3 went 60 of 109. The top 5 went 237 of 483. The top 10 went 463 of 993. The full board — every matchup ranked, not just the top slices — landed 5,489 winners on 15,003 calls.
The Stat Boards
On the batting side, Hits led at 61% on 1,637 graded calls. Total bases and H+R+RBI both sat at 50%. DFS points came in at 46%. Runs hit 40%, RBI 31%, Walks 29%. Home runs and Stolen bases were the toughest lines going, at 13% and 6%.
The pitcher boards ranked better up top. Pitcher DFS points hit 71% in the top 3 on 182 calls, though the full board fell to 29% there. Hits allowed went 64% in the top 3 and 53% across the full board. Pitcher outs held at 57% top 3, 55% full. Pitcher walks ran 50% top 3, 58% full. Pitcher strikeouts and Earned runs sat closer to the middle — 48% and 39% in the top 3, both landing at 54% on the full board.
UFC
UFC graded 18 fights across two events — Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5 and Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado. MatchWiz called 13 of them correctly.
The biggest upset came from Jose Miguel Delgado. We gave him a 57% win probability and he still lost, by submission.
Soccer
Soccer graded 70 games across the Bundesliga, EPL, La Liga, Ligue 1, MLS, Serie A and the Champions League. Match result hit 30 of 70. Over/under 2.5 hit 43 of 70. Both teams to score also hit 43 of 70.
Every posted play this week
15 of 32 landed — 12 of 22 on team totals, 3 of 10 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-07 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -136 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-07 | Emmet Sheehan | under 6.5 strikeouts | -135 | 10 | Miss |
| 09-07 | Miami Marlins | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 3.5 | -115 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-08 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 2.5 | -125 | 3 | Hit |
| 09-08 | Jacob Misiorowski | under 8.5 strikeouts | -132 | 9 | Miss |
| 09-08 | Kansas City Royals | team total under 4.5 | -130 | 3 | Hit |
| 09-08 | Miami Marlins | team total over 3.5 | -146 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-09 | Boston Red Sox | team total under 5.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-09 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 8 | Hit |
| 09-09 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -133 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-09 | Shane Baz | under 4.5 strikeouts | -135 | 5 | Miss |
| 09-09 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | -108 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-09 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total under 5.5 | -130 | 0 | Hit |
| 09-09 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-10 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | +122 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-11 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-11 | Chris Sale | under 7.5 strikeouts | -140 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-11 | Houston Astros | team total over 2.5 | -150 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | +105 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 3.5 | -120 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-11 | Wilber Dotel | over 1.5 strikeouts | -164 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-12 | Kyle Leahy | over 2.5 strikeouts | -150 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-13 | Chase Burns | over 3.5 strikeouts | -124 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-13 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -111 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-13 | Dylan Cease | under 8.5 strikeouts | -125 | 9 | Miss |
| 09-13 | Gabriel Hughes | over 3.5 strikeouts | -148 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-13 | Kansas City Royals | team total over 2.5 | -150 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-13 | Payton Tolle | under 6.5 strikeouts | -140 | 7 | Miss |
| 09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-13 | San Diego Padres | team total over 3.5 | -136 | 6 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.