Plays of the Day: 8-18
The Play of the Day pool went 8 for 18 this week. ROI came in at -22%. That's a losing week for the headline call, plain and simple.
MLB: the ranked boards
Across the ranked matchups, the top 3 hit 62 of 113. The top 5 hit 228 of 486. The top 10 hit 466 of 988. The full board hit 5364 of 15308.
On the individual stat boards, Pitcher walks led the pack: 73% in the top 3 and 54% across the full board, on 170 graded. Hits landed at 60% on the full board across 1674 graded. Home runs and stolen bases were the softest spots on the week, at 11% and 7% respectively, also on 1674 graded. Pitcher DFS points hit 62% in the top 3 on 186 graded.
The posted plays: strikeout unders whiff
Every strikeout-under call missed this week. Eduardo Rodriguez was called under 4.5 strikeouts at -155 on August 25; he threw 9.0. Chris Sale went under 7.5 at -142 on August 27; he struck out 11. Cristopher Sánchez was under 7.5 at -111 on August 29; he finished with 8. Three calls, zero hits.
Team totals fared better, going 8 for 15. Baltimore's over 3.5 at -120 cashed when the Orioles scored 13. The Cubs' over 3.5 at -143 cashed at 4. The Angels' over 2.5 at -142 cashed at 6. Toronto's under 4.5 at -110 held at 3.
Pittsburgh's over 3.5 call went 2 for 3 across the week: a miss at 1 on August 28, then hits at 6 and 5 on the 29th and 30th. Seattle's over 2.5 missed twice, going scoreless on August 26 and managing just 1 on the 28th.
Across all 18 posted plays, the site went 8 for 18. Overs carried the record at 7 of 14. Unders lagged at 1 of 4.
Golf: Scheffler at East Lake
Scottie Scheffler was our top-ranked pick at the TOUR Championship, and he won it. We had the eventual winner ranked first as well. All 10 of our top 10 graded players finished inside the top 25. The event carried no cut, so there's nothing to add about who got through the weekend — just a clean week for the board.
UFC: 12 of 18, with a KO twist
The straight-pick record went 12 of 18 across Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 and UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song. The biggest upset: Umar Nurmagomedov, given a 71% win probability, lost by KO/TKO.
Soccer: mixed across six leagues
43 games graded across the Bundesliga, EPL, LaLiga, Ligue 1, MLS and Serie A. Match result hit 19 of 43. Over/under 2.5 hit 26 of 43. Both teams to score hit 27 of 43.
Every posted play this week
8 of 18 landed — 8 of 15 on team totals, 0 of 3 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 3.5 | -120 | 13 | Hit |
| 08-25 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-25 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 2.5 | -142 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-26 | Eduardo Rodriguez | under 4.5 strikeouts | -155 | 9 | Miss |
| 08-26 | Seattle Mariners | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-26 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total under 4.5 | -110 | 3 | Hit |
| 08-26 | Washington Nationals | team total over 4.5 | +100 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-27 | Chris Sale | under 7.5 strikeouts | -142 | 11 | Miss |
| 08-28 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 3.5 | -108 | 3 | Miss |
| 08-28 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-28 | Seattle Mariners | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-29 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 4.5 | -142 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-29 | Cristopher Sánchez | under 7.5 strikeouts | -111 | 8 | Miss |
| 08-29 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-29 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-30 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-30 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-30 | San Diego Padres | team total over 2.5 | -148 | 4 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.