The Number Everyone's Asking About
Plays of the Day went 10 for 22 this week. That's a -20% ROI.
Ten wins from twenty-two calls isn't a wipeout on its own. The ROI says the losses cost more than the wins paid — price mattered as much as outcome.
628 rows got graded across MLB this week, the full set behind every number below.
Ranked Matchups: Quality Erodes as the Net Widens
Top 3 ranked matchups hit 51 of 108.
Top 5 ranked hit 239 of 482.
Top 10 ranked hit 464 of 977.
The full board went 5,503 of 15,437. The pattern holds every week: the tighter the tier, the stronger the hit rate.
The Boards: Pitchers Up, Power Down
Pitcher walks were the best-performing category anywhere on the sheet: 64% in the top 3, 61% across the full board.
Pitcher strikeouts followed at 48% top 3 and 56% full board. Earned runs sat at 47% top 3, 54% full board. Hits allowed came in at 50% top 3 and 51% full board.
Hitter boards were harder work. Home runs finished at 11% on the full board, stolen bases at just 7% — the two toughest reads of the week. Total bases landed at 49%, H+R+RBI at 50%, both close to a coin flip.
The Calls, Named and Shamed
The Athletics' team total over 2.5 on September 20th, priced at -110, is the week's cleanest miss: Oakland scored zero.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' over 4.5 on September 16th, at -132, also missed — Los Angeles managed just 2. Colorado's over 4.5 that same day, at -110, fell short too, with the Rockies scoring 3.
Minnesota missed its number twice. The Twins' over 2.5 on September 15th (-154) produced 1 run. Their over 3.5 on September 18th (-140) produced 3.
Pittsburgh split its two calls. The Pirates' over 2.5 on September 15th (-125) missed at 1 run; the over 3.5 on September 17th (-130) hit, with Pittsburgh plating 7.
On the prop side, Michael Wacha's under 4.5 strikeouts (+103) hit — he finished with 2. Foster Griffin's under 5.5 (-151) hit at exactly 5. Chase Burns' over 3.5 (-132) hit with 4. Lake Bachar's over 2.5 (+146) missed — he managed just 1. Kyle Leahy's over 2.5 (-132) missed the same way, at 1. Noah Cameron's under 5.5 (-140) missed too, with 6 strikeouts.
Posted Plays: The Bigger Ledger
Across every posted play this week — team totals and player props together — the record was 10 of 22. That's a separate ledger from the Play of the Day pool, even though the two numbers happen to match this week.
Team totals went 7 of 16. Props went 3 of 6. Overs went 8 of 19, unders went 2 of 3.
Every posted play this week
10 of 22 landed — 7 of 16 on team totals, 3 of 6 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-14 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-15 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-15 | Foster Griffin | under 5.5 strikeouts | -151 | 5 | Hit |
| 09-15 | Lake Bachar | over 2.5 strikeouts | +146 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-15 | Michael Wacha | under 4.5 strikeouts | +103 | 2 | Hit |
| 09-15 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 2.5 | -125 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-16 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -136 | 8 | Hit |
| 09-16 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 3 | Hit |
| 09-16 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 4.5 | -110 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-16 | Detroit Tigers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-16 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total over 4.5 | -132 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-17 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 7 | Hit |
| 09-18 | Chase Burns | over 3.5 strikeouts | -132 | 4 | Hit |
| 09-18 | Kyle Leahy | over 2.5 strikeouts | -132 | 1 | Miss |
| 09-18 | Miami Marlins | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-18 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-18 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 9 | Hit |
| 09-19 | Noah Cameron | under 5.5 strikeouts | -140 | 6 | Miss |
| 09-20 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -110 | 0 | Miss |
| 09-20 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 7 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.