Fight previews usually compare records. Records are close to meaningless in MMA — a 12-3 fighter who beat twelve journeymen and a 12-3 fighter who beat three contenders look identical on paper. This tool compares the numbers that actually separate them, drawn from per-fight stat lines rather than from results.
What gets compared
MatchWiz rating is our own strength number. It moves with every fight and it weights who you beat, so a win over a ranked opponent moves it far more than a win over a debutant. Both fighters' rating histories are drawn on one timeline, which is usually the fastest way to see whether a matchup is two fighters trending toward each other or one on the way up meeting one on the way down.
Significant strikes landed per minute is output — how busy and accurate a striker is. Absorbed per minute is the other half, and it's the one casual previews skip: a high-output striker who also takes a lot back is a different proposition from one who doesn't. The gap between the two is often the fight.
Takedowns per 15 minutes and takedown defense decide where the fight happens, which usually decides everything else. A wrestler with 4 takedowns per 15 against a striker with 45% defense is a very different matchup from the same wrestler against 90% defense — and that pairing moves our number more than either fighter's record does.
Submission attempts per 15 shows grappling intent once it's on the mat. Finish rate is what share of wins came inside the distance — a read on whether a fighter closes or grinds decisions. Age and reach round it out; age matters more in this sport than most, and the decline tends to arrive suddenly rather than gradually.
How to read it honestly
The greener value has the edge on that row — but rows don't carry equal weight, and the tool deliberately doesn't pretend otherwise by summing them into a score. Grappling matchups are usually decided by the takedown pair; kickboxing matchups by the strike differential. Which rows matter is the analysis, and that's yours to do.
Two limits worth carrying. Our tape runs from 2015 to the present across UFC and Contender Series bouts, so a fighter with a long career elsewhere shows only the part we can measure. And a fighter with few UFC fights has numbers built on very little — they'll look precise and they aren't. The fight board marks those cases as small samples for that reason.
See the leaderboards for where any fighter ranks on each of these rates, or the fight board for our win probability on the upcoming card set against the books' price.