Where he stands
Justin Gaethje is 11-5 across 16 fights on our tape. He's on a 3-fight winning run. Our rating has him at 1680 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He ends fights
64% of Justin's wins have come inside the distance. That's a real trait and a volatile one: a finisher's floor is lower than his highlight reel suggests, because the same aggression that ends fights early loses them early. He absorbs 6.8 significant strikes a minute, which is the number to watch — a high finish rate paired with heavy absorption is a career that tends to be short and loud.
Age matters more here than in most sports
Justin is 37. MMA decline tends to arrive suddenly rather than gradually — durability goes before output does, so a fighter can look sharp on the stats right up until he doesn't. The model factors age in, and it's one of the places we'd trust the number least on any individual fight.
How the model reads him
Justin's rating updates after every result and weights the quality of the opponent. Against a specific opponent it becomes a win probability, adjusted for the stylistic matchup — striking output against absorption, takedown rate against takedown defense — plus age and layoff. The weighting is ours; the output is published on the fight board and graded.
What we'd flag
The tape starts in 2015 and covers UFC and Contender Series only, so career records elsewhere aren't reflected. Beyond that: MMA has the highest single-event variance of anything we model, and no rating survives contact with a flush shot.