Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brady Singer. The lefty is going deep on .083 HR/PA against righties this year — and .027 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Brady Singer has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .111 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 8 career PA against Brady Singer. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (96) vs RHP Michael Wacha: elite bat at .066 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.026).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (82) vs LHP Framber Valdez: big-time bat at .064 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (81) vs RHP the starter: elite bat at .067 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (77) vs RHP Brady Singer: big-time bat at .056 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (75) vs RHP Bryce Elder: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (75) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.095).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (73) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: big-time bat at .057 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .074 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.