Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 28, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.7 BF
Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)21.2%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)18.8%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.7%2.7
4. Jorge Soler (R)19.7%2.0
5. Jose Siri (R)20.3%2.0
6. Jo Adell (R)20.3%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)20.9%2.0
8. Sebastián Rivero (R)19.4%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)20.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-125-106
We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate15.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB17.1%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)20.3%3.0
2. Sam Haggerty (L)20.3%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.3%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)24.3%3.0
5. Evan Carter (L)19.6%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0
7. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.6%2.4
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)21.2%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)20.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-128-103
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB17.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.4 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)17.8%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.3%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)23.2%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)21.3%3.0
6. Michael Harris II (L)24.0%2.2
7. Jorge Mateo (R)23.9%2.0
8. Dominic Smith (L)23.4%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)23.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101
We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.4 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)18.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)21.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)21.3%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)24.1%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)20.1%2.6
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)19.4%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)20.6%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)20.2%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-118-113
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 4.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB27.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.5 BF
Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)24.8%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)22.2%2.5
3. Miguel Vargas (R)17.9%2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)20.9%2.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.3%2.0
6. Tristan Peters (L)23.4%2.0
7. Randal Grichuk (R)21.8%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)21.6%2.0
9. Edgar Quero (L)21.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB18.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)21.1%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.8%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)29.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.9%3.0
5. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.1%3.0
6. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.7%3.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)22.3%2.4
8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.0%2.0
9. Caleb Durbin (R)20.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-133+101
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 4.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB24.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.1%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.3%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)20.2%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)22.7%2.6
5. Weston Wilson (R)22.0%2.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)19.9%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)20.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)20.5%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)22.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-161
We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.7%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)23.0%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)23.4%3.0
3. Trevor Larnach (L)23.4%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)20.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)20.4%3.0
6. Orlando Arcia (R)25.6%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)19.5%2.2
8. Tristan Gray (L)19.6%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-160+120
We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)21.6%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)24.0%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.5%3.0
4. Jake Meyers (R)20.3%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)19.7%3.0
6. Braden Shewmake (L)24.4%3.0
7. Nick Allen (R)24.2%3.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)21.1%2.5
9. Christian Vázquez (R)22.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-152+114
We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)25.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.5%3.0
4. Oneil Cruz (L)21.1%3.0
5. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)21.8%3.0
6. Jake Mangum (L)22.0%2.3
7. Tyler Callihan (L)21.9%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)21.5%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)16.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-132-101
We project 5.4 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB26.0%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Colt Keith (L)25.1%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)24.5%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)21.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)26.3%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.7%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)19.3%2.0
7. Matt Vierling (R)20.6%2.0
8. Wenceel Pérez (L)17.1%2.0
9. Jahmai Jones (R)19.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+103-136
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB24.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.7 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)20.1%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)25.8%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)23.3%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)23.4%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)18.5%2.8
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)26.0%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.1%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 5.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
12 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Jack FlahertyP
DETvsLAA· proj #1
6HFinal
T1
Chris SaleP
ATL@BOS· proj #6
6HFinal
3
Payton TolleP
BOSvsATL· proj #3
5HFinal
T3
Simeon Woods RichardsonP
MIN@CWS· proj #5
5HFinal
5
Paul SkenesP
PITvsCHC· proj #4
4HFinal
T5
Patrick CorbinP
TOR@BAL· proj #7
4HFinal
T5
Nathan EovaldiP
TEXvsHOU· proj #9
4HFinal
T5
Colin ReaP
CHC@PIT· proj #10
4HFinal
T5
Chris BassittP
BALvsTOR· proj #12
4HFinal
10
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOU@TEX· proj #2
3HFinal
11
Davis MartinP
CWSvsMIN· proj #8
2HFinal
T11
Grayson RodriguezP
LAA@DET· proj #11
2HFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 43%+7 pts-26% ROI
Top 10
5/956%
season 46%+10 pts-21% ROI
Top 20
5/1145%
season building
Top 50
5/1145%
season building
Full slate
5/1145%
season 48%-3 pts-15% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Jack Flaherty (DET) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, May 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H, with Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty (DET) tops the Thursday, May 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H vs LAA. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) (97) — about 4.1 H vs TEX.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (82) — about 4.4 H vs ATL.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (77) — about 4.4 H vs CHC.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) (65) — about 4.6 H vs CWS.
Chris Sale (ATL) (47) — about 4.9 H vs BOS.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.3 H. Jack Flaherty finished with 6. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, May 28, 2026)?
Jack Flaherty (DET) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 4.1 H against LAA.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, May 28, 2026: Jack Flaherty (~4.1 H), Spencer Arrighetti (~4.1 H), Payton Tolle (~4.4 H), Paul Skenes (~4.4 H), Simeon Woods Richardson (~4.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
