Which pitcher has the best walks allowed matchup today (Thursday, July 30, 2026)?

JP Sears (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 BB against SF.

What are the best pitcher walks props today?

The top projected starts on Thursday, July 30, 2026: JP Sears (~1.1 BB), Bryan Woo (~1.5 BB), Cole Winn (~1.0 BB), Mason Barnett (~1.1 BB), Yohan Ramírez (~1.3 BB). The full board ranks every starter.

Why are pitcher walk lines usually 1.5?

The average start produces right around two walks, and books shade the line to 1.5 with juice doing the fine-tuning. That makes the price, not the number, the thing to read — over 1.5 at −160 and at +120 are different bets entirely.

Does the opposing lineup really change a walk prop?

More than any other pitcher prop. Chase-heavy lineups turn borderline pitches into strikes and at-bats into quick outs; patient ones force full counts. The same command profile can project half a walk apart depending on who's standing in.

How is the walks allowed score calculated?

Ranked by walk risk against today's lineup — his command, the lineup's plate discipline, and his workload. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected walks number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.

Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?

Yes — the board surfaces the best walks spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.

Best MLB walks allowed matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 30, 2026 slate — ranked by walk risk against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Final · 2–3

TEXaway

TBhomeTop matchup98 Final · 3–4

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup79 Final · 1–2

NYYaway

CWShomeTop matchup64 Final · 4–2

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–3

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–4

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup40 Final · 4–5

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup68 ● 3–4 · Bot 7

BOSaway

ATHhomeTop matchup98 ● 4–1 · Bot 6

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 ● 0–5 · Bot 5

SEAaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher walks Rate6.7% BB / BF

vs LHB5.9%

vs RHB6.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.1 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness7.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)3.2%3.0

2. Heliot Ramos (R)6.5%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)10.3%2.6

4. Rafael Devers (L)8.1%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)4.4%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)9.4%2.0

7. Daniel Susac (R)7.8%2.0

8. Grant McCray (L)7.4%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)5.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+155-220

DKDraftKings+159-213

We project 1.1 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate4.7% BB / BF

vs LHB6.5%

vs RHB2.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.3%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Tommy Edman (L)6.3%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)6.2%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)10.8%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)15.9%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)7.8%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.8%3.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)6.4%2.1

8. Dalton Rushing (L)9.1%2.0

9. Enrique Hernández (R)8.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-130-110

DKDraftKings-125-106

We project 1.5 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.1% BB / BF

vs LHB13.4%

vs RHB4.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload8.8 BF

Expected batters faced8.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.0 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)8.7%1.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.3%1.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)8.2%1.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)9.7%1.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)4.5%1.0

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)12.2%1.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)7.4%1.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)11.0%1.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)12.2%0.8

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cole Winn's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate11.3% BB / BF

vs LHB11.1%

vs RHB11.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload11.5 BF

Expected batters faced11.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.1 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness7.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Anthony Seigler (L)10.0%2.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)4.3%2.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)9.2%1.4

4. Willson Contreras (R)7.8%1.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)7.4%1.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)6.7%1.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)7.6%1.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)5.0%1.0

9. Connor Wong (R)7.4%1.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mason Barnett's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate12.0% BB / BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB7.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload10.3 BF

Expected batters faced10.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)10.5%2.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)9.1%1.3

3. JJ Bleday (L)12.6%1.0

4. Tyler Stephenson (R)8.5%1.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)10.5%1.0

6. Eugenio Suárez (R)6.1%1.0

7. Dane Myers (R)8.7%1.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)4.5%1.0

9. Matt McLain (R)9.4%1.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yohan Ramírez's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate7.3% BB / BF

vs LHB8.1%

vs RHB6.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.4 BF

Expected batters faced18.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness7.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)9.4%2.4

2. Jordan Walker (R)6.3%2.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)9.0%2.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)8.1%2.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)12.6%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)6.8%2.0

7. Bryan Torres (L)7.4%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)4.8%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)5.3%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+150-200

DKDraftKings+149-200

We project 1.3 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate5.9% BB / BF

vs LHB5.4%

vs RHB6.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)10.8%3.0

2. John Rave (L)10.9%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)9.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)4.8%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)5.6%3.0

6. Nick Loftin (R)8.2%2.1

7. Isaac Collins (L)14.1%2.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)8.6%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)5.3%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+155-220

DKDraftKings+159-213

We project 1.3 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.6% BB / BF

vs LHB9.6%

vs RHB7.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)10.6%2.0

2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)14.6%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)13.8%2.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)3.2%2.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)9.6%2.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)6.2%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)6.7%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%1.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)8.5%1.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+140-180

DKDraftKings+135-180

We project 1.5 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jake Irvin's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate6.7% BB / BF

vs LHB5.0%

vs RHB7.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)8.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)16.4%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.9%3.0

4. Randal Grichuk (R)6.7%2.8

5. Colson Montgomery (L)6.3%2.0

6. Everson Pereira (R)10.0%2.0

7. Braden Montgomery (R)7.5%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)5.0%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (R)6.9%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+100-140

DKDraftKings+100-133

We project 1.6 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate5.8% BB / BF

vs LHB6.1%

vs RHB5.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.7 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)18.2%3.0

2. Jacob Wilson (R)5.0%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.6%3.0

4. Jonah Heim (L)6.5%3.0

5. Tommy White (R)8.5%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)10.8%3.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)8.2%2.3

8. Carlos Cortes (L)7.9%2.0

9. Donovan Walton (L)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+110-150

DKDraftKings+111-147

We project 1.7 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.3% BB / BF

vs LHB9.1%

vs RHB8.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.6 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness7.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Wyatt Langford (R)12.9%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)7.2%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)5.4%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)7.6%3.0

5. Justin Foscue (R)9.3%2.2

6. Cam Cauley (R)8.5%2.0

7. Nicky Lopez (L)3.9%2.0

8. Austin Wynns (R)4.5%2.0

9. Alejandro Osuna (L)4.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+135-175

DKDraftKings+133-178

We project 1.6 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate9.0% BB / BF

vs LHB10.1%

vs RHB7.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.9 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)9.5%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)8.4%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)6.3%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)7.5%2.6

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)7.5%2.0

6. Brett Baty (L)8.3%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)7.1%2.0

8. Jorge Polanco (L)9.2%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)7.9%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-150+110

DKDraftKings-147+111

We project 1.9 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate7.8% BB / BF

vs LHB7.3%

vs RHB8.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.2 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)14.5%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)15.9%3.0

3. Royce Lewis (R)10.3%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)8.0%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)6.8%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)9.8%3.0

7. Brooks Lee (R)5.2%2.3

8. Alex Jackson (R)5.3%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)10.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-165+124

We project 2.2 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate9.7% BB / BF

vs LHB10.7%

vs RHB8.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.1 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)17.0%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)5.1%3.0

3. Dylan Crews (R)7.3%2.2

4. CJ Abrams (L)8.0%2.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)6.3%2.0

6. Keibert Ruiz (L)4.1%2.0

7. José Tena (L)7.0%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)9.1%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)8.9%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-145+105

DKDraftKings-140+105

We project 2.1 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.1% BB / BF

vs LHB8.4%

vs RHB7.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness10.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)8.1%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)10.2%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)11.8%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)8.5%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)14.2%3.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)7.7%3.0

7. Michael Conforto (L)10.9%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)9.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)9.9%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+155-220

DKDraftKings+153-205

We project 2.3 BB vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate10.5% BB / BF

vs LHB14.0%

vs RHB5.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.3 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)5.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)8.6%2.5

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.3%2.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)10.8%2.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)10.0%2.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)5.7%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.3%2.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)8.5%2.0

9. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)5.8%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-110-130

DKDraftKings-107-123

We project 2.3 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate10.0% BB / BF

vs LHB12.3%

vs RHB7.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness8.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)8.3%3.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)10.1%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)6.6%3.0

4. Julio Rodríguez (R)6.1%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)8.7%2.4

6. Cal Raleigh (L)14.2%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)7.4%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)10.4%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)7.2%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-140+100

DKDraftKings-135+102

We project 2.4 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate10.6% BB / BF

vs LHB9.8%

vs RHB10.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)13.7%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (R)6.6%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)10.3%3.0

4. Ty France (R)5.0%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)5.4%3.0

6. Luis Campusano (R)14.5%3.0

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)9.9%2.5

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)9.3%2.0

9. Jase Bowen (R)8.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+145-190

DKDraftKings+140-187

We project 2.8 BB vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.6% BB / BF

vs LHB9.9%

vs RHB6.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.4 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)10.0%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)10.8%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)6.9%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)9.9%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)8.6%3.0

6. Griffin Conine (L)9.6%3.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.6%2.2

8. Graham Pauley (L)7.7%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)6.5%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+150-200

DKDraftKings+148-199

We project 2.4 BB vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher walks Rate8.7% BB / BF

vs LHB10.4%

vs RHB6.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he walks the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 BB

Expected walks — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · walk-proneness9.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)13.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)11.8%3.0

3. Jasson Domínguez (L)8.2%3.0

4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)5.2%3.0

5. Spencer Jones (L)11.4%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.1%2.6

7. Anthony Volpe (R)8.3%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)10.0%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)9.9%2.0

Each hitter's walks rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walks Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-167+125

We project 2.7 BB vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Best MLB Walks Allowed Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026

JP Sears (SD) leads the Thursday, July 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 BB owns today's cleanest command matchup. Bryan Woo (SEA) is next at 100. Walks are the most pitcher-controlled number on the board — and the market where a patient lineup quietly changes everything.

Top spot: JP Sears

JP Sears (SD) projects for the stingiest free-pass line of the slate — about 1.1 BB against SF. Command is the skill, but the lineup sets the test: some clubs chase, some make an arm throw strike three.

The rest of the top of the board

Bryan Woo (SEA) (100) — about 1.5 BB vs LAD.
Cole Winn (TEX) (98) — about 1.0 BB vs TB.
Mason Barnett (ATH) (98) — about 1.1 BB vs BOS.
Yohan Ramírez (PIT) (84) — about 1.3 BB vs CIN.
Javier Assad (CHC) (82) — about 1.3 BB vs STL.

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 1.6 BB. JP Sears finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.

Walks are a two-sided discipline stat

No allowed stat is more in the pitcher's hands than the walk — no defense, no park, no batted-ball luck. But the batter's box matters more than most bettors credit: the spread between the league's most patient lineup and its most chase-happy one is worth a full walk a night to the same arm. The model reads both sides — this pitcher's strike-throwing against this lineup's swing decisions, split by hand. And because walk lines live down at 1.5, a half-walk of projection is an enormous gap: small line, coarse outcomes, price matters more than anywhere else.

How to read the walks allowed board

Every starter is scored 0–100 on tonight's command setup — his walk rate by handedness against how patiently this lineup actually swings. The projection is expected walks for the start; at a 1.5 line a projection near 1.0 or 2.0 is a real lean, and the juice decides whether it's worth anything. Graded against the box score, always.

Keep reading

What the walks allowed board is

The Walks Allowed board projects how many free passes a starter issues. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His control.
The lineup's patience.
Count leverage.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Walks are near-unpredictable at the margin and the market prices them efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

A read on a starter's command for the night; no edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays