Today's matchup
Alan is on the road against San Diego Padres on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — walks (39.1/100, #53), doubles (38.9/100, #47), singles (28.5/100, #69), total bases (23.1/100, #81). We've got him at 0.4 on the walks board. The model doesn't love the spot — the numbers are below. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.
He's swinging a hot bat
Alan is 7-for-24 (.292) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .230 season mark. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.
He's a left-handed bat
Alan hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Alan has recorded at least one hit in 11 of 25 games he's batted in — 44% — with 2 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.
His best game in the log
Alan's biggest night was Wednesday, August 12, 2026 against BAL — 3-for-3 with 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
No graded record on him yet
We haven't ranked Alan a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — not once so far. He's appeared in 26 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.
Where he lands across our boards
Alan was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 39.1/100 while home runs came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Take the name off Alan and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Alan specifically, his sample is small (61 at-bats logged), and we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.