Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Sunday, September 27, 2026
Top rbis spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Carson Seymour. The lefty is driving in runs at .130 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 13% of his trips. And Carson Seymour has been getting lit up by righties lately — .200 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Carson Seymour too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Seth Johnson: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (95) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (93) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: an elite bat at .186 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (92) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.229).
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) (91) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.212).
- Jo Adell (CLE) (88) vs LHP Daniel Lynch IV: an elite bat at .195 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.234).
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (86) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.229).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .159 against lefties this year.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .144 against lefties this year.
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .244 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 100.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jackson Merrill (SD) at 73.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays